【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月美国零售行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：
Beat & Raise?
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We believe the majority of our companies will beat Q1 expectations, including
AAP, LOW, HD, PETM, DKS and AZO. We believe that evidence of outsized
annual beats will be necessary to send most stocks to new levels given higher
valuations. As an example, HD guided to 8% margins for the year and the
stock seems to be incorporating between an 8.2% and 8.4% margin. In our
view, evidence of exceeding that range and ideally HD raising its own
guidance will be necessary for that stock to continue its near term
outperformance.
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Our best ideas going into Q1 results are AAP and LOW. For AAP
expectations are low given a tough comparison, but the combination of
improving top-line trends and better earnings visibility makes AAP’s
risk/reward seem very favorable. For LOW, expectations have risen,
escalating the risk level somewhat, but LOW has meaningfully lagged HD in
2010 and like AAP should have solid earnings visibility going forward.
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Themes: A few themes set the tone during Q1.
1) Results should show that companies are on pace to continue the move to
peak operating margins at lower sales productivity than previous periods.
2) Consumer spending is rebounding owing to better balance sheets, and
improving employment. Spending has stayed surprisingly strong even with
the recent slowdown.
3) Weather during Q1 may have made the quarter a tale of two halves, with
the second half being stronger at least until mid-April. Weather then
seems to have hurt the last two weeks of the quarter. One issue to watch
for is more cautious commentary due to recent weather but we believe
margin expansion will trump that.