【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月全球新兴市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：178
        【目录或简介】：

Inflation is clawing its way back in EM – and there’s a strong sense
of déjà vu. Renewed pressure is the result of a rebound in food and
energy prices, tightening capacity constraints and failure to sterilise
FX intervention. Asia and markets like Brazil in LatAm are on the
front line, with pressures less evident in EMEA. Real estate prices in
economies including China have also rocketed. In many cases,
these pressures are unlikely to go away without concerted
tightening.
But will central banks take a firm stand while the Fed keeps rates on
hold? For the most part we think they will, and believe monetary
policy in most of EM is now biased to tightening. There won’t
necessarily be a direct relationship between inflation and rate hikes,
as we expect central banks and governments to fight back with a
mixture of hikes, quantitative restrictions, a higher tolerance for
currency appreciation, regulation and controls.
Inflation fears – and the expectation that central banks in EM will
tighten to counter them – are again shifting the balance of value
from debt to FX, commodities and real assets in large parts of the
emerging world. We believe greater currency flexibility will be
supported by China moving back to a pre-crisis-style track of
currency appreciation before mid-year. Our constructive view on EM
currencies reflects a belief that global liquidity will remain flush with
G3 monetary policy on hold. Consequently, a tightening bias via
rates in response to inflation pressures in many emerging markets
should be interpreted as carry and currency supportive – or more
directly in the sense that currency appreciation itself ends up being
the mechanism of tightening.

The beast is back 3
Stopping it in its tracks 23
Appreciation antidote? 31
Country and territory overviews 39
Argentina 46
Brazil 50
Chile 54
China 58
Colombia 62
Egypt 66
Hong Kong SAR 70
Hungary 74
India 78
Indonesia 82
Israel 86
Kazakhstan 90
Korea 94
Malaysia 98
Mexico 102
Nigeria 106
Pakistan 110
Philippines 114
Poland 118
Romania 122
Russia 126
Saudi Arabia 130
Singapore 134
South Africa 138
Sri Lanka 142
Taiwan 146
Thailand 150
Turkey 154
United Arab Emirates 158
Ukraine 160
Venezuela 164
Vietnam 168
Disclosure appendix 175
Disclaimer 176