【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月美国建材行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：31
        【目录或简介】：

US housing starts adjusted slightly
We have updated our EPS forecasts for JHX, BLD and FBU based on revised US
housing start expectations. Our forecasts now imply slightly lower forecasts for
FY10 (June year end), however a sharper recovery into FY12 (1055k). We continue
to believe a recovery to US housing may be slower than expected due to high
inventory (including shadow inventory), high foreclosures and an end to the tax
credit. Therefore, we update forecasts and retain our recommendations at this
stage as follows: Buy on FBU, Hold both on BLD and JHX.
Deutsche Bank AG/Sydney
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Company Update
Top picks
Fletcher Building (FBU.NZ),NZD8.40 Buy
Companies featured
James Hardie Industries (JHX.AX),AUD7.98 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 16.0 25.7 19.6
Div yield (%) 0.0 1.4 1.6
Price/book (x) – – –
Boral (BLD.AX),AUD5.83 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 20.4 27.3 16.4
Div yield (%) 2.9 2.1 3.1
Price/book (x) 0.9 1.1 1.1
Fletcher Building (FBU.NZ),NZD8.40 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 10.5 16.4 10.9
Div yield (%) 6.1 4.0 5.8
Price/book (x) 1.2 1.6 1.5
Global Markets Research Company
Significant First Home Buyer exposure will likely end post tax credit
We believe FHB have been a significant driver of housing demand in the US.
Currently, some homebuilders report 2/3 of sales relate to this segment (usually
50%). We believe it is likely housing starts will decline upon the tax withdrawal
and following that, will likely recover. As such we forecast housing starts to trough
in June and July 2010 before recovering to 650k at the end of CY10.
BLD and JHX state housing exposures are similar
Our analysis shows that BLD's US state exposure is 0.8 percentage points better
than JHX’s state exposure. This is largely due to BLD’s strong exposure to
Colorado and Oklahoma. We note both companies have strong exposure to Texas.
Accordingly, starts on a weighted basis have increased 3.5% from the trough for
BLD and 2.7% for JHX (these states have declined 76% and 74% from the peak
respectively).
Pulp not a huge impact for JHX
While pulp prices have increased 10% since January 2010 and 40% yoy, we do
not think this will impact JHX until the June quarter 2010 (Q1FY11). Further, we
believe JHX have announced price increases to take effect on 1 July 2010 which
should offset these increases. Our calculations imply a 3.4% price increase would
be necessary to offset higher pulp costs. We assume half of the pulp cost
increases impact margins (given 1 quarter delay for prices to flow through).
Negative adjustments to BLD earnings due to Australian concrete prices
We have reduced FY11 NPAT for BLD based on our view that average Australian
concrete prices in FY11 will be flat at best (previously +2%). This is based on
evidence that April 2010 concrete price increases have not stuck on the East
Coast (QLD and NSW) despite an improvement to our US housing view in FY11.
FBU remains our pick of the sector
We believe FBU offers 15% upside to current valuation and trades on 10.9x FY11
PE. We note BLD valuation of $5.67 and FY11 PE of 16.4x and JHX valuation of
$8.20 and FY11 PE of 19.6x compares with the international average FY11 PE of
14.9x.
No change to recommendations
Given the cyclical and cash generative nature of building materials stocks, we
value building materials and steel stocks on a fundamental DCF basis. Key risks for
the building materials sector includes a longer/shorter time to recovery in the US
and Australian housing and weaker/stronger pricing outcomes. (Please refer to
page 19 for details)

Table of Contents
International Building Material Comparables.............................................................................3
Key Points .......................................................................................... 4
What’s new?............................................................................................................................4
US housing start forecasts revised ...........................................................................................4
End to tax credit will likely cause softness near term ...............................................................5
Inventory (especially existing) remains high..............................................................................6
Foreclosures remain a significant risk… and are increasing......................................................7
Increase to 30 year rate has not yet occurred, but will .............................................................8
JHX vs. BLD states - which one is preferable? .........................................................................8
JHX Impact....................................................................................... 12
Key impact to forecasts ..........................................................................................................12
Repair and remodel expectations ...........................................................................................12
New housing forecasts ...........................................................................................................12
Pulp cost increases likely offset..............................................................................................13
Gas costs ...............................................................................................................................14
Key model assumptions..........................................................................................................14
Old vs New forecasts .............................................................................................................15
Impact BLD....................................................................................... 16
Margins impacted ...................................................................................................................16
Australian concrete pricing a concern .....................................................................................16
Old vs New forecasts .............................................................................................................17
Impact FBU....................................................................................... 18
US housing exposure minimal ................................................................................................18
Old vs New forecasts .............................................................................................................18
Valuation and Risks......................................................................... 19
James Hardie ..........................................................................................................................19
Boral.......................................................................................................................................19
Fletcher Building .....................................................................................................................19
Appendix .......................................................................................... 20
Permit information ..................................................................................................................20
Unemployment information ....................................................................................................21
Foreclosure information ..........................................................................................................22
James Hardie financials ..........................................................................................................23
Boral financials ........................................................................................................................24
Fletcher Building financials......................................................................................................25
Analysts’ acknowledgement...................................................................................................26