Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk(与天为敌)

smartparker

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收藏 2010-05-27

一本比较老的书，不过挺经典的，有兴趣的看看。下个DjVu阅读器就可以了
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
与天为敌: 风险探索传奇

Author:Peter L. Bernstein
Business Week, New York Times Business, and USA Today Bestseller

Risk management, which assumes that future risks can be understood, measured and to some extent predicted, is the focus of this solid, thoroughgoing history. Probability theory, pioneered by 17th-century French mathematicians Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat, has made possible the design of great bridges, electric power utilities and insurance policies. The statistical sampling methods invented by dour Swiss scientist Jacob Bernoulli undergird diverse activities such as the testing of new drugs, stock-picking and wine tasting. Bernstein (Capital Ideas) animates his narrative with a colorful cast of risk-analyzers, including gambling addict Girolamo Cardano, 16th-century Italian physician to the Pope; and John Maynard Keynes, whose concerns over economic uncertainty compelled him to recommend an active, interventionist role for government. Bernstein also traces the development of business forecasting, game theory, insurance and derivatives, and surveys recent advances in risk forecasting made possible through chaos theory and by the development of neural networks.

With the stock market breaking records almost daily, leaving longtime market analysts shaking their heads and revising their forecasts, a study of the concept of risk seems quite timely. Peter Bernstein has written a comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability, beginning with early gamblers in ancient Greece, continuing through the 17th-century French mathematicians Pascal and Fermat and up to modern chaos theory. Along the way he demonstrates that understanding risk underlies everything from game theory to bridge-building to winemaking.
中文的介绍：
内容提要
风险管理是企业经营、股市投资、金融保险、星际探险等一切行为成功的要素，也使人类奸赌的天性得以转化为经济增长、生活提高和科技发展的能量。
本书考察了人类探索风险的艰难历程。
历史上一直存在两种意见：一派人坚持认为最好的决策应以过去的模式和数据为基础，另一派人则认为决策应基于对不确定的未来更大程度的主观判断。
作者从古希腊，古罗马时代，以及文艺复兴时代一直讲述到现在，精妙地将复杂的投资理念诠释成风格清新的故事，描述了哲学家，数学家、科学家、思想家、商人、业余学者等是如何努力让未来服务于现在的。
风险与其说是一种命运，不如说是一种选择，它取决于我们选择的自由程度。
全书尽管涉及不少概率问题，却仍能写得生动有趣，极为人性化，足见作者之功力。
媒体推荐
凭借自己对于历史和现行风险的出色了解；彼得L.伯恩斯坦将《与天为敌》奉献给世人。它对于金融世界来说是一本独一无二的好书，我非常认真地断定，没人该错过它。
——加尔布雷斯，著名经济学家
一本针对概率、充满野心、可读性强而又趣味盎然的入门书，伯恩斯坦把人们从迷信与宿命论的桎梏中解放出来。
——《纽约时报》
一本非常有娱乐性，而又增长见闻的书。
——《华尔街日报》
《与天为敌》对风险构建了一个深具野心的论述，并完成了它。
——《商业周刊》
本书应该，也一定会得到广泛的阅读。
——《经济学人》
生活总是有很多的偶然性，但把这个真理表述成数学模型则是最近的事情了。这样做的结果令人震惊——概率理论在桥梁建设、金融衍生产品和对冲基金交易等各个方面都起着重要作用。
——《财富》
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