Time-series  forecasts  are  used  in  a  wide  range  of
economic activities, including setting monetary and
®scal  policies,  state  and  local  budgeting,  ®nancial
management, and ®nancial engineering. Key elements
of  economic  forecasting  include  selecting  the  fore-
casting model(s) appropriate for the problem at hand,
assessing and communicating the uncertainty asso-
ciated with a forecast, and guarding against model
instability.