【出版时间及名称】：Q-Series: Global Aerospace
【作者】：UBS
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：65
【目录或简介】：
Contents page
Executive summary 3
— Airbus and Boeing could lose their hegemony......................................................3
Investment summary 7
A significant challenge to Airbus and Boeing 8
The future shape of the market 12
Scenario analysis 14
The risks to Boeing and Airbus 18
— (1) Lower sales ..................................................................................................18
— (2) Lower profit margins – pricing and cost base ................................................18
— (3) Lower profit margins – higher R&D costs ......................................................19
— (4) Lower returns on capital................................................................................19
— (5) State intervention could hit shareholder value...............................................20
EADS and Boeing – sensitivity analysis 21
Compelling analogies 23
— Compelling analogy 1.........................................................................................23
— Compelling analogy 2.........................................................................................23
— Compelling analogy 3.........................................................................................25
— Compelling analogy 4.........................................................................................25
Porter’s five forces shows the stakes are high 27
— The sixth force – government intervention..........................................................30
The defence case 33
— Ten years is a long time .....................................................................................35
Winners and losers 38
— Most at risk – the aircraft OEMS.........................................................................39
— At less risk – the suppliers..................................................................................39
— Potential winners – mid-cap M&A.......................................................................40
— Other considerations ..........................................................................................40
The road ahead – charting the progress of the competition 41
Appendix 1: Narrowbody aircraft – the backbone of the industry 42
— A short discussion: regional vs narrowbody jets .................................................45
Appendix 2: The market – 20,000 aircraft worth cUS$1.6 trillion 47
— Global demand by geography – competitors in growth markets..........................49
Appendix 3: Engine technology 51
Appendix 4: A tough decision for Airbus and Boeing 54
— A tough decision ................................................................................................54
— Scenario analysis...............................................................................................58