【出版时间及名称】：MS-Australia Strategy Chart Pack-100701
      【作者】：MS
      【文件格式】：pdf
      【页数】：90
      【目录或简介】：
Key Highlights – still adding back risk
 We are buyers of risk: We continue to think now is the time to add back risk to equity portfolios:
1. The market is cheap: The market is at ‘recession’ level multiples (11.5x – 12x) having been over-sold, in our view;
2. On earnings we believe: We believe earnings forecasts for next year – our own indicators agree with the earnings rebound
consensus is forecasting.
3. We have faith in the economic recoveries under way from key trading partners in China, Japan, Korea, India and the US.
4. We do not think there is ever going to be a time when the Australian equity multiple is below 12x and there is comfort in the
outlook – the two are mutually exclusive. Given our faith in the economic recovery and 2011 earnings, we think it is time to take
advantage of cheap multiples.
 We like mining, select retail, select property: We are overweight mining, which we think is cheap, on realistic (and strong) earnings
growth for next year – we recently added back EQN. We also own OZL, AWC. We are overweight HVN – the stock looks cheap, on
earnings we think are realistic (unlike others), and on a cycle where we want to be early (we all know retail is weak – but the possibility of
no more rate hikes this year could be the catalyst for the sector to recover). We are also overweight property (CFX, IOF, DXS) on cheap
and bottoming price to NTAs, and as a correction hedge (REITS have put back on their resilience-to-pull-back hats again).
 Forget 2010; 2011 should be the focus: we appear to be entering a realignment of 2010 expectations as we approach reporting season,
with a handful of company downgrades being announced. In our view, this is no surprise – 2010 was always going to be the transition /
bottoming year for earnings. We do not think this bout of expectation realignment should be extrapolated into 2011 – we still view 2011 as
a rebound earnings year. Our Earnings Growth Lead Indicator is pointing to a strong snap-back year – even if it is just one year, and key
trade partner economies are travelling along reasonably well. Our 2011 earnings forecast remains at 26%.
 Forget Europe; APAC should be the focus: Europe accounts for 7% of Australia’s export trade; APEC plus India accounts for 85%. On
the most part, key trading partner economies as well as Australia are tracking along reasonably, not spectacularly. Reasonable but not
spectacular growth is enough in our view to keep current earnings forecasts intact for 2011, particularly given we do not anticipate either of
the two major equity market killers – inflation or recession (aka double dip) – to happen.
 Avoiding 2010 misses (which we don’t think will be much more of an issue): Whilst focus should now be on 2011, stocks that miss
or downgrade 2010 forecasts are likely to be sold off, in our view. We have looked for stocks where either our analyst is below the street,
its June 2010 half mix is much higher than the pcp, or growth is forecast to accelerate sharply into the June half. We then overlay this with
a company’s earnings track record screen, as measured by an adaptation of our European team’s Reliable Growth screen. Stocks that
feature in the screen, where our analyst does not explicitly disagree include HSP, ASZ, PBG, CTX, WOR, UGL. Conversely, stocks that
do not appear in this screen, with a strong track record score are AGK, CCL, CSL, HVN, MND, WOW, WPL.