Contents
Contents ............................................................................................................................... 2
Summary ............................................................................................................................... 3
Investment Cases................................................................................................................ 4
Summary....................................................................................................................................4
Better-than-expected YTD growth for both JSEC & ZJEC...................................................................................................................................... 4
Raise PT & Earnings Estimate ............................................................................................. 5
Shanghai Expo Positive to Tourism Demand in YRD ..................................................................................................................................... 5
Low base factor should introduce better growth potential in 2011 ........................................................................................................................... 6
Impact of Historical Expos – Mixed Picture .......................................................... 6
Traffic Scenario Analysis Framework............................................................................... 9
Introduction............................................................................................................................ 9
Population ..................................................................................................................... 9
Origin of Visitors and Mode of Transport........................................................................... 9
Traffic Allocation between Jiangsu and Zhejiang ............................................................... 10
Passengers per Vehicle ......................................................................................................... 10
ASP ....................................................................................................................................... 11
Effective Travel Distance...................................................................................................... 11
Impact of Security Controls ................................................................................................... 11
Impact of Seasonality ..................................................................................................... 12
Base Case (50% Probability) ................................................................................ 12
Bear Case .................................................................................................................................. 13
Bull Case ........................................................................................................................... 14
Company Analysis ......................................................................................................................... 16
Zhejiang Expressway.......................................................................................................................... 17
Jiangsu Expressway...................................................................................................................... 28