模型正常做dynare能出结果,但是放到贝叶斯估计里面就出现
STEADY-STATE RESULTS:
Y 0.605788
C 0.429185
I 0.0845228
K 0.845228
L 0.978982
W 0.297021
R 0.120408
A 1
r 0.0204082
Po 1
O 0.0920797
q 1
B -5.93672
G 1
gy_obs 1
gc_obs 1
gp_obs 1
EIGENVALUES:
Modulus Real Imaginary
0 0 0
5.962e-16 -5.962e-16 0
8.9e-16 8.9e-16 0
0.5 0.5 0
0.5 0.5 0
0.5 0.5 0
0.8457 0.843 0.06736
0.8457 0.843 -0.06736
1.02 1.02 0
1.207 1.2 0.1252
1.207 1.2 -0.1252
7.303e+18 -7.303e+18 0
2.994e+19 2.994e+19 0
There are 5 eigenvalue(s) larger than 1 in modulus
for 5 forward-looking variable(s)
The rank condition is verified.
You did not declare endogenous variables after the estimation/calib_smoother command.
dynare_estimation_init:: The steady state at the initial parameters cannot be computed.
错误使用 print_info (line 32)
The steadystate file did not compute the steady state
出错 dynare_estimation_init (line 603)
print_info(info, 0, options_);
出错 dynare_estimation_1 (line 112)
dynare_estimation_init(var_list_, dname, [], M_, options_, oo_, estim_params_, bayestopt_);
出错 dynare_estimation (line 105)
dynare_estimation_1(var_list,dname);
出错 estimation.driver (line 300)
oo_recursive_=dynare_estimation(var_list_);
出错 dynare (line 293)
evalin('base',[fname '.driver']) ;
可是我的内生变量都写上去了:
var Y, C, I , K, L, W, R, A, r, Po, O, q, B, G, gy_obs, gc_obs, gp_obs;
varexo e, u, o;
parameters alpha1, alpha2, beta, delta, zhi, rhoa, rhopo, rhog,
sigmal, sigmac, psi;
alpha1=0.21;
alpha2=0.19;
beta=0.98;
delta=0.1;
sigmac=1.4;
sigmal=1.4;
zhi=5;
rhoa=0.5;
rhopo=0.5;
rhog=0.5;
psi=6;
model;
L^(sigmal)=C^(-sigmac)*W;
q*(C(+1)/C)^(sigmac)=beta*(R(+1)+q(+1)*(1-delta));
q*(1-psi/2*(I/I(-1)-1)^2-psi*(I/I(-1)-1)*I/I(-1))
+beta*(C/C(+1))^(sigmac)*q(+1)*psi*(I(+1)/I-1)*(I(+1)/I)^2=1;
(C(+1)/C)^(sigmac)=beta*(1+r);
C+I+(1+r(-1))*B(-1)+log(G)=W*L+R*K(-1)+B;
//log(G)+B=(1+r(-1))*B(-1);
Y=A*L^(1-alpha1-alpha2)*K(-1)^(alpha1)*O^(alpha2);
K=I*(1-psi/2*(I/I(-1)-1)^2)+(1-delta)*K(-1);
Y=I+C+Po*O;
Po=(zhi-1)/zhi*alpha2*Y/O;
W*L=(1-alpha1-alpha2)/alpha2*Po*O;
R*K(-1)=alpha1/alpha2*Po*O;
log(A(+1))=rhoa*log(A)+e;
log(Po)=rhopo*log(Po(-1))+u;
log(G)=rhog*log(G(-1))+o;
gy_obs=Y/Y(-1);
gc_obs=C/C(-1);
gp_obs=Po/Po(-1);
end;
shocks;
var e; stderr 0.009;
var u; stderr 0.009;
var o;stderr 0.009;
end;
steady_state_model;
Y = 0.605788;
C = 0.429185;
I = 0.0845228;
K = 0.845228;
L = 0.978982;
W = 0.297021;
R = 0.120408;
A = 1;
r = 0.0204082;
Po = 1;
O = 0.0920797;
q = 1;
B = -5.93672;
G = 1;
gy_obs=1;
gc_obs=1;
gp_obs=1;
end;
steady;
check;
estimated_params;
sigmac, gamma_pdf, 1.5, 0.25;
sigmal, gamma_pdf, 2, 0.25;
rhog, beta_pdf, 0.5, 0.2;
rhoa, beta_pdf, 0.5, 0.2;
rhopo, beta_pdf, 0.5, 0.2;
stderr e, inv_gamma_pdf, 0.1, inf;
stderr u, inv_gamma_pdf, 0.1, inf;
stderr o, inv_gamma_pdf, 0.1, inf;
end;
varobs gy_obs, gc_obs, gp_obs;
estimation(order=1, datafile=data_simul, nobs=39, mh_replic=2000, mh_nblocks=2, mh_jscale=0.8);