【出版时间及名称】：20100712-高盛高华证券：US Daily Financial Market Comment
      【作者】：高盛高华证券
      【文件格式】：PDF
      【页数】：4
      【目录或简介】：What Surveys Say Abou t the US GDP Slowdown
 Investors have quickly moved from skepticism about a second-half US slowdown to questions about its likely length
and depth. To shed more light on the slowdown as it develops, we have constructed a simple indicator of current
GDP growth based entirely on survey data, rather than the underlying components of GDP itself.
 The most useful survey for estimating GDP growth is, not surprisingly, the ISM manufacturing index, an indicator
designed to measure growth in one of the most cyclical parts of the economy. Other business surveys, including the
National Federation of Independent Business’s sentiment survey, provide some additional information on the business
cycle, and consumer confidence measures come in handy for estimating “real-time” GDP. Other surveys we tested
may have a decent correlation with GDP growth but do not seem to provide any information beyond that in the
aforementioned indicators.
 With most of the Q2 survey data now in hand, our simple survey-based indicators are consistent with roughly 3½%
annualized real GDP growth for the second quarter, quite close to our own estimate of 3%. Using only the latest
monthly data point suggests that the economy decelerated to around 2½% growth in June.