【出版时间及名称】：GS-Commodity Watch：It is all about the level，not the rate of growth-100715
      【作者】：GS
      【文件格式】：pdf
      【页数】：31
      【目录或简介】：
Strong micro data amid slowing macro data are NOT inconsistent
Over the past month, the market has received reassuring messages from
relatively robust microeconomic commodity and company level data that
have stood in sharp contrast to the more concerning weaker and mixed
macroeconomic data. Although these two messages seemingly conflict,
they are actually consistent messages, in our view, and underscore the
importance of focusing on levels when it comes to commodities rather
than on growth, as absolute levels of demand moving back up against
supply constraints are key to rebounding commodity prices, not sequential
growth rates. This distinction is central to our still-positive near-term
outlook for commodities despite renewed growth concerns.
Slowing growth still means rising demand levels
It is important to emphasize that the macroeconomic data is not suggesting
a downturn, but rather that we are now at the inflection point where the
rate of change of growth is beginning to slow. But all this means is that the
level of activity and commodity demand will likely sequentially rise but at a
slower rate. This is critically important to the commodity outlook as it
implies that the global balance for many commodities will continue to
tighten as demand levels rise against supply levels even as growth slows.
The tighter balance and declining inventories will likely put upward
pressure on commodity prices and returns.
We remain constructive on key commodities
Although we continue to acknowledge the current risks in the market, we
maintain that price risk for several key commodities, especially crude oil,
copper, zinc and platinum remains substantially skewed to the upside on a
6-12 mo horizon. Recent supply and demand developments also reinforce
our constructive view on corn. Accordingly, we are maintaining our
overweight recommendation to commodities with a 12-month ahead
forecasted return of 21.6%.