 
    


| I recently ran a do-file that contained several tobit and xttobit models and later decided to rerun one of the xttobit models. I was surprised to find that I got different results. The puzzle to me is that the iterations that fit the full model are identical to what I estimated the other day (through iteration 6), and then they diverge. The data have not changed, and the correct sample and variables are being used. The only difference is that I am running one regression instead of many. Is there some random component due to the use of quadrature? | 
For those not familiar with xttobit, it and several other commands that estimate random-effects models use Gauss–Hermite quadrature and adaptive quadrature to approximate the high-dimension integrals that are part of the likelihood for these models. The quadrature approximation can be poor for some datasets, and I suspect this is what this user is encountering.
As the user suggests, there is a random component to quadrature in that the within-panel sort will almost certainly be different unless you start Stata fresh and run exactly the same commands before running xttobit. Sort order is not important to the likelihood, but if the likelihood for the dataset cannot be approximated well by quadrature, the order can affect the quadrature computation (more on this later).
Quadrature is one of the most accepted approaches to estimating these models, but there are three cases where it often breaks down: (1) large panel sizes, (2) high within-panel correlation, or (3) variables that are constant or near constant within panel. I don’t know if any of these are true for these data, but any observation that contributes in an extreme way to the likelihood can cause problems. See [XT] quadchk for a good discussion of these issues.
Stata’s quadchk command can help tremendously in assessing whether your data are appropriate for estimation using the quadrature approximation. quadchk works with all of the estimation commands that use quadrature and I definitely recommend that the user try quadchk on the model. I also heartily recommend that people estimating a random-effects model by quadrature check whether the quadrature is stable for their model. If you’re using Stata, use quadchk to do this.
We have tried to point everyone using commands that employ quadrature to quadchk by providing a Technical Note or example in the manual entry. In hindsight, these suggestions could have been stronger.
We at StataCorp could have artificially forced Stata to produce the same answer always from xttobit by performing a sort during quadrature, but we purposely did not do that. That strikes us as ducking the issue. If quadrature is not stable, better not to hide it.
Commands using quadrature have been the source of some debate around StataCorp. None of us are wholly comfortable with estimators that are prone to instability, even if that instability arises only in extreme cases. That is why we feel so strongly about providing quadchk to assess the appropriateness of the estimator for a given dataset. The near consensus here is that these estimators are valuable to those who need them even though they require care from all who use them. They are stable for most datasets. Admittedly, these are leading-edge models, and estimating them requires more understanding of numerical and approximation issues on the part the user than do most other estimation commands.

help estimation commands
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------Title
[I] estimation commands -- Quick reference for estimation commandsDescription
For a discussion of properties shared by all estimation commands see
estcom.
This entry provides a quick reference for Stata's estimation commands.
Since enhancements to Stata are continually being added, type search
estimation commands for possible additions to this list; see search.
command description
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
anova Analysis of variance and covariance
arch ARCH family of estimators
areg Linear regression with a large dummy-variable set
arima ARIMA, ARMAX, and other dynamic regression models
asmprobit Alternative-specific multinomial probit regression
binreg Generalized linear models: Extensions to the
binomial family
biprobit Bivariate probit regression
blogit Logistic regression for grouped data
bootstrap Bootstrap sampling and estimation
boxcox Box-Cox regression models
bprobit Probit regression for grouped data
bsqreg Quantile regression with bootstrap standard errors
ca Simple correspondence analysis
camat Simple correspondence analysis of a matrix
canon Canonical correlations
clogit Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regression
cloglog Complementary log-log regression
cnreg Censored-normal regression
cnsreg Constrained linear regression
dprobit Probit regression, reporting marginal effects
eivreg Errors-in-variables regression
factor Factor analysis
factormat Factor analysis of a correlation matrix
fracpoly Fractional polynomial regression
frontier Stochastic frontier models
glm Generalized linear models
glogit Logit and probit for grouped data
gnbreg Generalized negative binomial model
gprobit Weighted least-squares probit regression for
grouped data
heckman Heckman selection model
heckprob Probit model with selection
hetprob Heteroskedastic probit model
intreg Interval regression
iqreg Interquantile range regressions
ivprobit Probit model with endogenous regressors
ivreg Instrumental variables (two-stage least-squares)
regression
ivtobit Tobit model with endogenous regressors
jackknife Jackknife estimation
logistic Logistic regression, reporting odds ratios
logit Logistic regression, reporting coefficients
manova Multivariate analysis of variance and covariance
mds Multidimensional scaling for two-way data
mean Estimate means
mfp Multivariable fractional polynomial models
mlogit Multinomial (polytomous) logistic regression
mprobit Multinomial probit regression
mvreg Multivariate regression
nbreg Negative binomial regression
newey Regression with Newey-West standard errors
nl Nonlinear least-squares estimation
nlogit Nested logit regression
ologit Ordered logistic regression
oprobit Ordered probit regression
pca Principal component analysis
pcamat Principal component analysis of a correlation or
covariance matrix
poisson Poisson regression
prais Prais-Winsten and Cochrane-Orcutt regression
probit Probit regression
procrustes Procrustes transformation
proportion Estimate proportions
_qreg Internal estimation command for quantile regression
qreg Quantile (including median) regression
ratio Estimate ratios
reg3 Three-stage estimation for systems of simultaneous
equations
regress Linear regression
rocfit Fit ROC models
rologit Rank-ordered logistic regression
rreg Robust regression
scobit Skewed logistic regression
slogit Stereotype logistic regression
sqreg Simultaneous-quantile regression
stcox Fix Cox proportional hazards model
streg Fit parametric survival models
sureg Zellner's seemingly unrelated regression
svar Structural vector autoregression models
svy: heckman Heckman selection model for survey data
svy: heckprob Probit regression with selection for survey data
svy: intreg Censored and interval regression for survey data
svy: ivreg Instrumental variables regression for survey data
svy: logistic Logistic regression, reporting odds ratios, for
survey data
svy: logit Logistic regression, reporting coefficients, for
survey data
svy: mean Estimate means for survey data
svy: mlogit Multinomial logistic regression for survey data
svy: nbreg Negative binomial regression for survey data
svy: ologit Ordered logistic regression for survey data
svy: oprobit Ordered probit regression for survey data
svy: poisson Poisson regression for survey data
svy: probit Probit regression for survey data
svy: proportion Estimate proportions for survey data
svy: ratio Estimate ratios for survey data
svy: regress Linear regression for survey data
svy: tabulate oneway One-way tables for survey data
svy: tabulate twoway Two-way tables for survey data
svy: total Estimate totals for survey data
tobit Tobit regression
total Estimate totals
treatreg Treatment-effects model
truncreg Truncated regression
var Vector autoregression models
var svar Structural vector autoregression models
varbasic Fit a simple VAR and graph impulse-response
functions
vec Vector error-correction models
vwls Variance-weighted least squares
xtabond Arellano-Bond linear, dynamic panel-data estimation
xtcloglog Random-effects and population-averaged cloglog
models
xtfrontier Stochastic frontier models for panel data
xtgee Fit population-averaged panel-data models using GEE
xtgls Fit panel-data models using GLS
xthtaylor Hausman-Taylor estimator for error-components
models
xtintreg Random-effects interval data regression models
xtivreg Instrumental variables and two-stage least squares
for panel-data models
xtlogit Fixed-effects, random-effects, and
population-averaged logit models
xtmixed Multilevel mixed-effects linear regression
xtnbreg Fixed-effects, random-effects, and
population-averaged negative binomial models
xtpcse OLS or Prais-Winsten models with panel-corrected
standard errors
xtpoisson Fixed-effects, random-effects, and
population-averaged Poisson models
xtprobit Random-effects and population-averaged probit
models
xtrc Random-coefficients models
xtreg Fixed-, between-, and random-effects, and
population-averaged linear models
xtregar Fixed- and random-effects linear models with an
AR(1) disturbance
xttobit Random-effects tobit model
zinb Zero-inflated negative binomial regression
zip Zero-inflated Poisson regression
ztnb Zero-truncated negative binomial regression
ztp Zero-truncated Poisson regression
[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-6 13:08:51编辑过]

In this paper, I will discuss a number of Stata’s capabilities in the area of time series modeling, including data management and graphics. I will focus on a number of user – contributed routines, some of which have found their way into official Stata, with others likely to follow. For brevity, there are some areas I will not cover in this discussion: vector autoregressions and structural VARs, ARCH and GARCH modeling, cointegration tests ( now available in o cial Stata’s July 2004 update) and panel unit root tests. I concentrate on a number of features and capabilities that may not be so well known, and present some new methodologies for time – series data analysis.
[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-6 20:13:18编辑过]


1. Installing, customizing and updating Stata 3
2. Windows in Stata 5
3. Suggested mode of operation 7
4. Getting help 9
5. Stata file types and names 10
6. Variables and observations 11
6.1. Variable names 11
6.2. Numeric variables 11
6.3. Missing values 12
7. Command syntax 13
8. Getting data into Stata 16
9. Documentation commands 18
10. Modifying data 20
10.1. Calculations 20
10.2. Selections 21
10.3. Renaming and reordering variables 23
10.4. Sorting data 24
10.5. Numbering observations 24
10.6. Combining files 25
10.7. Reshaping data 26
11. Description and analysis 27 11.1. Categorical data 27 11.2. Continuous data 30
12. Regression models 32 12.1. Linear regression 32 12.2. Logistic regression 33
13. Survival and related analyses 34
14. Graphs 38
15. Miscellaneous 54
15.1. Memory considerations 54
15.2. String variables 55
15.3. Dates. Danish CPR numbers 57
15.4. Random samples, simulations 59
15.5. Immediate commands 60
15.6. Sample size and power estimation 61
15.7. Ado- files 62
15.8. Exchange of data with other programs 63
15.9. For old SPSS users 63
16. Do- file examples 65
Appendix 1: Purchasing Stata and manuals 67
Appendix 2: Entering data with EpiData 68
Appendix 3: NoteTab Light: a text editor 70
Alphabetic index 71


Category listings
Basics language syntax, expressions and functions, ...
Data management inputting, editing, creating new variables, ...
Statistics summary statistics, tables, estimation, ...
Graphics scatterplots, bar charts, ...
Programming and matrices do-files, ado-files, Mata, matrices
Help file listings
Language syntax advice on what to type
Manual datasets download datasets from the Reference manuals

Stata Help Page: Stata Version 6.0 for Unix
| Contents | Other Stata Help Pages | 

STATA HELP 
Stata has extensive help once you are in the program.
help gives an overview of help
help contents gives many pages of commands 
[I have saved this as the text-file contents.txt] 
help regress for example gives help on the stata command regress for linear regression 
 
STATA SEARCH
This can give more results than Stata help, 
including 
search statistics for example gives summary of commands for statistical analysis 
search simulation for example gives information oin simulation 
 
STATA TUTORIALS
Stata gives several tutorials that demonstrate various modules.
tutorial contents lists available turorials 
tutorial survival for example, demonstrates survival commands 
Unfortunately unless you use a graphic interface for Stata these tutorials do not show the graphs. 
 
STATA MANUALS
The documentation is extensive.
The starting point is the User's Guide. You should really look at this. 
e.g. [U] chapter 17 means User's Guide chapter 17 
The Reference Guide is broken into four volumes 
e.g. [R] matrix means Reference manual Matrix commands which is in Reference H-O (vol. 2). 
The first of the reference manuals has a useful list of contents at the front. 
 
STATA WEB-SITE
The website has a lot of information. 
This includes summary of what Stata does. 
For answers to frequently asked questions see http://www.stata.com/support/ 
Within Stata using search will cross-reference material on this website. 
 
STATA BULLETIN
The Stata Bulletin has more recent code that has not yet appeared in Stata. 
The website http://www.stata.com/support/stb/faq has an overview. 
The programs can be downloaded free of charge. 
But to read the accompanying article requires purchase of the Stata bulletin. 
Within Stata using search will cross-reference material in the Stata bulletin. 
 
For further information on how to use Stata go to 
 http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/cameron 
 
 


http://210.72.32.6/cgi-bin/bigate.cgi/b/g/g/http@210.72.32.26/tjshujia/tjjc/t20051212_402295534.htm
[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-6 21:28:37编辑过]


A little bit of Stata programming goes a long way...
Christopher F Baum1
Abstract
This tutorial will discuss a number of elementary Stata programming constructs and discuss how they may be used to automate and robustify common data manipulation, estimation and graphics tasks. Those used to the syntax of other statistical packages or programming languages must adopt a di erent mindset when working with Stata to take full advantage of its capabilities. Some of Stata’s most useful commands for handling repetitive tasks: forvalues, foreach, egen, local, scalar, estimates and matrix are commonly underutilized by users unacquainted with their power and ease of use. While relatively few users may develop ado- files for circulation to the user community, nearly all will benefit from learning the rudiments of use of the program, syntax and return statements when they are faced with the need to perform repetitive analyses. Worked examples making use of these commands will be presented and discussed in the tutorial.
[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-7 4:10:38编辑过]

The econometric literature offers various modeling approaches for analyzing micro data in combination with time series of aggregate data. This paper discusses the estimation of a VAR model that allows unobserved heterogeneity across observation unit, as well as unobserved time-specific variables. The time-latent component is assumed to consist of a persistent and a transient term. By using a Helmert-type orthogonal transformation of the variables it is demonstrated that the likelihood function can be expressed on a state space form. The dimension of the state vector is low and independent of the time and cross section dimensions. This fact makes it convenient to employ an ECM algorithm for estimating the parameters of the model. An empirical application provides new insight into the problem of making forecasts for aggregate variables based on information from micro data.
[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-7 4:23:13编辑过]



help hausman dialog: hausman -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Title
[R] hausman -- Hausman specification test
Syntax
hausman name-consistent [name-efficient] [, options]
options description ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Main constant include estimated intercepts in comparison; default is to exclude alleqs use all equations to peform test; default is first equation only skipeqs(eqlist) skip specified equations when performing test equations(matchlist) associate/compare the specified (by number) pairs of equations force force performance of test, even though assumptions are not met df(#) use # degrees of freedom sigmamore base both (co)variance matrices on disturbance variance estimate from efficient estimator sigmaless base both (co)variance matrices on disturbance variance estimate from consistent estimator
Advanced tconsistent(string) consistent estimator column header tefficient(string) efficient estimator column header -------------------------------------------------------------------------
where name-consistent and name-efficient are names under which estimation results were saved via estimates store. A period (.) may be used to refer to the last estimation results, even if these were not already stored. Not specifying name-efficient is equivalent to specifying the last estimation results as ".".
Description
hausman performs Hausman's specification test. To use hausman, one has to perform the following steps.
(1) obtain an estimator that is consistent whether or not the hypothesis is true; (2) store the estimation results under a name-consistent using estimates store; (3) obtain an estimator that is efficient (and consistent) under the hypothesis that you are testing, but inconsistent otherwise; (4) store the estimation results under a name-efficient using estimates store; (5) use hausman to perform the test
hausman name-consistent name-efficient [, options]
The order of computing the two estimators may be reversed. You have to be careful though to specify to hausman the models in the order "always consistent" first and "efficient under H0" second. It is possible to skip storing the second model and refer to the last estimation results by a period (.).
hausman may be used in any context. The order in which you specify the regressors in each model does not matter, but it is your responsibility to assure that the estimators and models are comparable, and satisfy the theoretical conditions (see (1) and (3) above).
Options
+------+ ----+ Main +-------------------------------------------------------------
constant specifies that the estimated intercept(s) be included in the model comparison; by default, they are excluded. The default behavior is appropriate for models in which the constant does not have a common interpretation across the two models.
alleqs specifies that all the equations in the models be used to perform the Hausman test; by default, only the first equation is used.
skipeqs(eqlist) specifies in eqlist the names of equations to be excluded from the test. Equation numbers are not allowed in this context, as the equation names, along with the variable names, are used to identify common coefficients.
equations(matchlist) specifies, by number, the pairs of equations that are to be compared.
The matchlist in equations() should follow the syntax
#c:#e [,#c:#e[, ...]]
where #c(#e) is an equation number of the always-consistent (efficient under H0) estimator. For instance equations(1:1), equations(1:1, 2:2), or equations(1:2).
If equations() is not specified, then equations are matched on equation names.
equations() handles the situation in which one estimator uses equation names and the other does not. For instance, equations(1:2) means that equation 1 of the always-consistent estimator is to be tested against equation 2 of the efficient estimator. equations(1:1, 2:2) means that equation 1 is to be tested against equation 1 and that equation 2 is to be tested against equation 2. If equations() is specified, options alleqs and skipeqs are ignored.
force specifies that the Hausman test be performed, even though the assumptions of the Hausman test seem not to be met, for example, because the estimators were p-weighted.
df(#) specifies the degrees of freedom for the Hausman test. The default is the matrix rank of the variance of the difference between the coefficients of the two estimators.
sigmamore and sigmaless specify that the two covariance matrices used in the test be based on a common estimate of disturbance variance (sigma2).
sigmamore specifies that the covariance matrices be based on the estimated disturbance variance from the efficient estimator. This option provides a proper estimate of the contrast variance for so-called tests of exogeneity and overidentification in instrumental variables regression.
sigmaless specifies that the covariance matrices be based on the estimated disturbance variance from the consistent estimator.
These options can only be specified when both estimators save e(sigma) or e(rmse), or with command xtreg. e(sigma_e) is saved after command xtreg with options fe or mle. e(rmse) is saved after command xtreg with option re.
sigmamore or sigmaless are recommended when comparing fixed-effects and random-effects linear regression because they are much less likely to produce a nonpositive-definite differenced covariance matrix (although the tests are asymptotically equivalent whether or not one of the options is specified).
+----------+ ----+ Advanced +---------------------------------------------------------
tconsistent(string) and tefficient(string) are formatting options. They allow you to specify the headers of the columns of coefficients that default to the names of the models. These options will be primarily of interest to programmers.
Remark: An alternative to hausman
The assumption that one of the estimators is efficient (i.e., has minimal asymptotic variance) is a demanding one. It is violated, for instance, if your observations are clustered or pweighted, or if your model is somehow misspecified. Moreover, even if the assumption is satisfied, there may be a "small sample" problem with the Hausman test. Hausman's test is based on estimating the variance var(b-B) of the difference of the estimators by the difference var(b)-var(B) of the variances. Under the assumptions (1) and (3), var(b)-var(B) is a consistent estimator of var(b-B), but it is not necessarily positive definite "in finite samples", i.e., in your application. If this is the case, the Hausman test is undefined. Unfortunately, this is not a rare event. Stata supports a generalized Hausman test that overcomes both of these problems. See suest for details.
Examples
Typing
. xtreg lny educ age, fe . est store fixed . xtreg lny educ age sex, re . hausman fixed .
presents Hausman's specification test, which tests the appropriateness of the random-effects estimator (xtreg, re).
Typing
. mlogit travmode age gender income . est store all . mlogit travmode age gender income if travmode != 2 . est store partial . hausman partial all, alleqs constant
will perform a Hausman test for independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA).
When one estimator uses equation names and the other does not, specify the equations() option to force the comparison. This is illustrated in the comparison of the OLS estimator and the estimator of the regress part of the heckman model
. regress mpg price . est store reg . heckman mpg price, sel(foreign=weight) . hausman reg ., eq(1:1)
Comparison of the probit and selection model of the heckman
. probit foreign weight . est store probit_for . heckman mpg price, sel(foreign=weight) . hausman probit_for ., eq(1:2)
Also see
Manual: [R] hausman
Online: lrtest, suest, test, xtreg, xtregar
[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-8 2:12:07编辑过]


Paul Allison: Fixed Effects Negative Binomial Regression Models
This paper demonstrates that the conditional negative binomial model for panel data, proposed by Hausman, Hall and Griliches ( 1984), is not a true fixed- effects method. This method — which has been implemented in both Stata and LIMDEP — does not, in fact, control for all stable covariates. Three alternative methods are explored. A negative multinomial model yields the same estimator as the conditional Poisson estimator and, hence, does not provide any additional leverage for dealing with overdispersion. On the other hand, a simulation study yields good results from applying an unconditional negative binomial regression estimator with dummy variables to represent the fixed effects. There is no evidence for any incidental parameters bias in the coefficients, and downward bias in the standard error estimates can be easily and effectively corrected using the deviance statistic. Finally, an approximate conditional method is found to perform at about the same level as the unconditional estimator.

Joao Pedro Azevedo (
[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-8 6:37:34编辑过]

[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-8 6:42:20编辑过]

 
Factor analysis (and its relative, principal components analysis) are performed in Stata using the 4 basic commands (factor, greigen, rotate, score) listed below. 
 
factor [varlist],[algorithm] [modifiers] 
 
[varlist] Choose variables to analyze. 
 
[algorithm] Choose type of analysis (algorithm): 
 
pc - principal components 
 
pcf - principal component factors 
 
pf - principal factors (default) 
 
ipf - iterated principal factors 
 
ml - maximum likelihood
[modifiers] Choose appropriate modifiers: 
 
factors (#) Select maximum # of common factors. 
 
mineigen (#) Set eigenvalue minimum for common factor. 
 
covariance Analyze covariance matrix (in pc only).
greigen Graph eigenvalues for "scree plot". 
 
rotate [,option] 
 
varimax Choose orthogonal rotation. 
 
promax (#) Choose nonorthogonal (oblique) rotation. (# defines correlation)
score "newvarnames" [,option] 
 
bartlett Use (unbiased) Bartlett method rather than default regression 
 method (smaller MSE). 
 
norotate Score unrotated factors. 
 
greigen 
 
factor x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x8 x9, ipf factor (3) 
 
rotate, varimax 
 
score "factor1" "factor2" "factor 3", bartlett
Notations: 
 
 
Command 2 graphs the eigenvalues by factor number. 
 
Based on the results of the first two command, a decision is made to retain 
three common factors with command 3. 
 
The fourth command provides an orthogonally rotated (varimax) solution. 
 
The last command produces factor scores for each of the three factors using Bartlett's algorithm.
[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-8 6:52:27编辑过]

| Stata | SAS | SPSS | Mplus | |||||
| Regression Models | ||||||||
| Robust Regression | Stata | |||||||
| Models for Binary and Categorical Outcomes | ||||||||
| Logit Regression | Stata | SAS | SPSS | |||||
| Multinomial Logit Regression | Stata | |||||||
| Ordinal Logit Regression | Stata | |||||||
| Probit Regression | Stata | |||||||
| Censored and Truncated Regression | ||||||||
| Tobit Regression | Stata | |||||||
| Truncated Regression | Stata | |||||||
| Interval Regression | Stata | |||||||
| Other | ||||||||
| Latent Class Analysis | Mplus | |||||||

Implementation of quasi-least squares using xtgee in Stata
Liang and Zeger's original formulation of generalized estimating equations (GEE) has been widely applied since its introduction in 1986 because it extends the application of generalized linear models to clustered data. In this presentation we discuss a method, quasi-least squares (QLS), that is in the framework of GEE and builds on this popular approach by allowing for consideration of correlation matrices that were previously difficult to apply. In particular, we describe how to QLS in a straight-forward fashion by making use of Stata's xtgee procedure. We then discuss some data analysis examples.
http://repec.org/nasug2004/Shults_Stata_2004.ppt

| Stata 9 manuals | |||||
| 
 | |||||
| See a larger photo of the front cover | |||||
| Overview of the Stata documentation | |||||
| Table of contents | |||||
| Introduction to longitudinal/panel data reference manual (pdf) | |||||
| Introduction to xt commands (pdf) | |||||
| 
 | |||||
[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-8 10:44:52编辑过]

Mark E Schaffer
| Abstract | 
xtivreg2 implements IV/GMM estimation of the fixed-effects and first-differences panel data models with possibly endogenous regressors. It is essentially a wrapper for ivreg2, which must be installed for xtivreg2 to run (version 2.1.15 or above of ivreg2 is required: ssc install ivreg2, replace). xtivreg2 supports all the estimation and reporting options of ivreg2; see help ivreg2 for full descriptions and examples. In particular, all the statistics available with ivreg2 (heteroskedastic, cluster- and autocorrelation-robust covariance matrix and standard errors, overidentification and orthogonality tests, first-stage and weak/underidentification statistics, etc.) are also supported by xtivreg2 and will be reported with any degrees-of-freedom adjustments required for a panel data estimation.
File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/repec/bocode/x/xtivreg2.ado
[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-9 23:40:44编辑过]


 扫码加好友,拉您进群
扫码加好友,拉您进群 
    
 
    













