1.Imagining Can Heighten or Lower the Perceived Likelihood of Contracting a Disease: The Mediating Effect of Ease of Imagery
Steven J. Sherman, Robert B. Cialdini, Donna F. Schwartzman, and Kim D. Reynolds
Personality and social psychology bulletin
http://psp.sagepub.com/content/11/1/118.full.pdf+html

2.The Weighing of Evidence and the Determinants of Confidence.
Dale Griffin and Amos Tversky
Cognitive Psychology
v24 n3 p411-35 Jul 1992
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6WCR-4D5XCDC-5H&_user=10&_coverDate=07%2F31%2F1992&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1435633909&_rerunOrigin=google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=7b850b55e7dabcaaee7b2e4db4f502e6

3.Resistance of Personal Risk Perceptions to Debiasing Interventions
Neil D. Weinstein and William M. Klein
Health Psychol.
1995 Mar;14(2):132-40.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6WYK-46PBNC9-N&_user=10&_coverDate=03%2F31%2F1995&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1435637889&_rerunOrigin=google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=a78c9b1114c9349a921fab41b590ce91