MS-China Strategy：A volatile bottoming process ahead-100824
作者：摩根斯坦利
格式：pdf
页数：41
摘要：
Table of Contents
Latest one-month rally snapped by renewed concerns
on China’s economic slowdown .............................................3
We expect MSCI-China to enter a volatile bottoming
process over the next three months.......................................4
(1) Expecting China’s economy to engineer a soft landing, rather than
a hard landing on the growth front .............................................................................4
(2) Improving liquidity conditions cushioning further market downside ..................11
(3) Policies to become tailwinds from headwinds .....................................................14
The risks to our base-case scenario of a volatile
bottoming process .................................................................17
(1) CPI Inflation risks ................................................................................................17
(2) Asset Inflation risks..............................................................................................18
(3) A-shares facing supply-side pressure in Oct/Nov FY10 ......................................19
(4) A number of sector-specific policy risks could hurt corporate earnings ..............21
Sector Views...........................................................................23
Overweight
(1) Mid-cap consumer (sticky growth) names ...........................................................23
(2) Consumer service providers .................................................................................26
(3) China's visible rail capex beneficiaries.................................................................28
(4) Western China development beneficiaries ...........................................................28
(5) Menswear .............................................................................................................28
(6) Insurance ..............................................................................................................28
(7) Mid-cap banks......................................................................................................29
Underweight
(1) Commodities ........................................................................................................30
(2) Energy ..................................................................................................................32
(3) Property................................................................................................................32
Neutral
We take a neutral stance on China Telcos in China strategy context.........................34
China Model Portfolio (CMP) adjustments ...........................36
(1) We cut exposure to utilities, gas and expressways...............................................36
(2) With the proceeds, we added weight in China's mid-cap consumer sector ..........36