机构：摩根斯坦利
日期：20100906
篇幅：PDF 82PAGE
内容：
China: Moderation Continues
Against the backdrop of the authorities’ redoubled
efforts to shut energy-inefficient production units,
industrial production growth continued to moderate due
to intensified supply-side adjustment. While fixed-asset
investment growth saw a further slowdown, tailwinds
(e.g. loosening of controls on new projects, aggressive
implementation of the social housing program, easing in
local government financing) have now appeared. We
also expect the Chinese authorities to allow a faster
appreciation of the RMB against the USD given the
rising political pressure and the prospective large trade
surplus in 2H10 compared to 1H10. Given the
heightened uncertainties, we have launched the China
Macro Risk Radar (CMRR) to provide a framework to
systematically assess and monitor risk events of low
probability but potentially high impact.
Hong Kong: Robust Growth and Capital Inflow
The Hong Kong economy sustained robust growth in
2Q10 with real GDP expanded 6.5% YoY. We now
expect GDP to grow 6% and 4% in 2010 and 2011
respectively. The Hong Kong banking system saw a
significant increase in RMB deposits in July without
hurting the growth of HK$ or other foreign currency
deposits, signaling a genuine expansion in the banking
sector balance sheet upon the further development in
the offshore RMB business. We also observed capital
inflow in July, and fundamentally the stock of excess
liquidity in the banking system still remained sizable,
offering little upward pressure on interest rates.
Taiwan: 2Q GDP Beat Expectations by Wide Margin
Taiwan’s GDP expanded 12.5% YoY in 2Q10, driven
mainly by an upside surprise in private consumption
growth which should increase the overall economy’s
resilience in the event that external demand faces any
uncertainties. With the economy expanding
faster-than-expected, we believe that interest rate
normalization will continue for the rest of the year. We
expect two more rate hikes in 2H10 (+12.5 bps each) to
bring the policy re-discount rate to 1.625% by year-end.