平衡比特币定价

Equilibrium Bitcoin Pricing

作者：

布鲁诺·比亚斯（Bruno Biais）

阿尔伯特·门克维尔德（Albert Menkveld）

凯瑟琳·卡萨玛塔（Catherine Casamatta）

克里斯托夫·比西埃（ChristopheBisière）

马修·布瓦德（Matthieu Bouvard）

We offer an overlapping generations equilibrium model of cryptocurrency pricing and confront it to new data on bitcoin transactional benefits and costs. The model emphasizes that the fundamental value of the cryptocurrency is the stream of net transactional benefits it will provide, which depend on its future prices. The link between future and present prices implies that returns can exhibit large volatility unrelated to fundamentals. We construct an index measuring the ease with which bitcoins can be used to purchase goods and services, and we also measure costs incurred by bitcoin owners. Consistent with the model, estimated transactional net benefits explain a statistically significant fraction of bitcoin returns.
我们提供了加密货币定价的世代重叠均衡模型，并将其用于有关比特币交易收益和成本的新数据。该模型强调，加密货币的基本价值是它将提供的净交易收益流，这取决于其未来价格。未来价格与当前价格之间的联系意味着回报可能会出现与基本面无关的大幅波动。我们构建了一个指数，用于衡量可以使用比特币购买商品和服务的难易程度，并且还可以衡量比特币所有者产生的成本。与该模型一致，估计的交易净收益解释了比特币收益的统计显着部分。