从消费方面来看,今年1-8月我国消费同比出现高增长,达18.2%,预计四季度,消费总体将保持平稳增长态势:一是城镇居民可支配收入累计同比增速自2009年三季度的14.68%下降到今年一季度的9.81%后,在二季度大幅增加至38.41%,这将为四季度及明年的消费增长提供有力支撑;二是目前负的实际利率水平能够有效促进消费;三是消费者信心指数今年以来呈不断上升态势,并屡创历史新高,8月为107.3,一般认为,该指数超过100即代表对未来经济和支出持乐观积极情绪。
From the view of consumption, China's consumption from January to August this year appears high growth, up to 18.2%.It is expected in the fourth quarter, overall consumption will maintain steady growth: First, the cumulative year on year growth of the disposable income of urban residents from 14.68% of the third quarter of 2009 down to 9.81% of the first quarter of this year. A significant increase in the second quarter to 38.41%, which will provide effective support for the fourth quarter and next year's consumption growth; Secondly, it is the negative real interest rates that can effectively promote the consumption; Thirdly, the consumer confidence index showed a rising trend during this year, and the record is 107.3 in August. The general view is that the index more than 100 represents a positive and optimistic mood of the future economic and spending.