Airlines:High-speed rail less of a threat than you may think; Buy CEA (H); Sell CSA (H)航空运输行业

研究机构：高盛高华证券 分析师： Hino L ... 撰写日期：2010年10月28日

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    Many industry commentators assume Chineseairlines could suffer significant market share losswhen the high-speed rail (HSR) is completed. Wedisagree. We believe carriers will continue to enjoy afavorable operating environment, thanks to strongdemand for air travel. Even after factoring in 4.1%market share loss due to diversion to HSR, weexpect net air traffic growth to outpace that ofcapacity expansion between 2010E and 2012E. Weraise our 2010E-12E EPS by 2%-11% for all 3 Chineseairlines to reflect robust year-to-date traffic. As aresult, we raise our 12-m TPs by an average of 5.6%.