收稿日期: 2007206213.
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(70572090) .
作者：谭显东1 , 胡兆光2    (11 华北电力大学工商管理学院, 北京102206 ;21 国网北京经济技术研究院, 北京100761)

摘要: 完整的投入产出表外推应该包含第I、第II、第III 象限的外推。采用RAS 法外推投入产出的第I 象
限, 提出按比例外推第II、第III 象限, 在此基础上利用中国1997 年、2002 年投入产出表外推了包含15 个
行业的2005 年投入产出表, 验证了所提外推方法的有效性。最后利用这三张表研究了各行业对中国经济增
长所起的拉动作用和推动作用, 结论是化学工业、金属产品制造业、机械设备制造业3 大行业对前几年中国
经济增长起着很强的主导作用, 而且随着中国经济的发展, 服务业对经济的推动作用也越来越大。
关键词: 投入产出表; RAS 法; 主导产业; 影响力系数; 感应度系数
中图分类号: F223 　　　文献标识码: A 　　　文章编号: 1007 - 2691 (2008) 03 - 0084 - 06
Study on ext rapolating input2output table and
leading indust ry of China
TAN Xian2dong1 , HU Zhao2guang2
(11School of Business and Adminstration , North China Electric Power University , Beijing 102206 , China ;
21State Power Economic Research Institute , Beijing 100761 , China)
Abstract : The extrapolating of the whole input2output table includes the extrapolating of the first , the second and the
third quadrant . In this paper , the first quadrant was extrapolated by RAS method , the second and third quadrant was
extrapolated by the method of proportional sharing , based on this , using the input2output tables of 1997 and 2002 ,
the 2005 input2out table was extrapolated , which shows the valid of the extrapolating method. Finally , with the three
tables , the leading industry of China was analyzed , the analysis result shows that chemical industry , metal products
manufacturing , machinery and equipment industry play an important role in the economic development of China , and
with economic development , the role of service industry in promoting economic growth will be more and more obvi2
ous.
Key words : input2output table ; RAS method ; leading industry ; diffusion coefficient ; induction coefficient