英文文献：A Bayesian State Space Approach to Estimating Pest Management Models
英文文献作者：Gorddard, Russell
英文文献摘要：
Models for pest management need to incorporate information from many subject areas, including biology, agronomy and economics. The information sources are unrelated except by the structural assumptions of the bio-economic model that is used. Rigorous model estimation is often at the expense of ignoring much of the available information. This paper illustrates how a Bayesian approach using the Gibbs sampler can allow the incorporation of potentially valuable prior information. This approach provides posterior distributions for the important model relationships, giving an indication of confidence in the model and providing a natural starting point for stochastic decision making.