含按城市分的库存价格分析。

Contents:
Introduction p.2
I. The coming supply shock p.4
II. Our developer survey p.10
III. The policy war p.21
Conclusions p.24
Appendix p.25
Highlights
• A significant supply shock is about to hit China’s housing market. It will
build and remain significant in H1-2011. It could help cause prices to shift
down in some Tier 2 and many Tier 3 cities. The lack of new supply in Tier
1 cities, though, should be supportive to prices.
• If Beijing can hold the line on its policies, demand will remain low. Throw in
a few more interest rate hikes and property tax trials and it is possible
sentiment could turn and prices would adjust down moderately. However, if
the economic data weaken, then expectations will turn to thinking that
Beijing will loosen policy.
• Construction activity growth has held up well so far, but given the imminent
growth of inventories nationally, we expect developers to reduce
construction in Q1. This is a key risk to commodity (steel and copper)
demand in 2011.
• Developers with scale, a broad base of operations, low levels of leverage
and who are able to sell inventory will do OK. Small and medium-sized
developers will suffer.
• Until several fundamental problems are resolved, long-term expectations
will not change, though, whatever happens to prices in 2011, and China’s
housing bubble will continue to inflate whenever monetary policy is
loosened again.