【原文出处】山东大学学报：哲社版
【原刊地名】济南
【原刊期号】20083
【原刊页号】120～126
【分 类 号】F10
【分 类 名】国民经济管理
【复印期号】200809
【英文标题】An empirical analysis of maro economic fluctuation and industry construction change
【文章日期】2007-12-09
【作 者】李云娥
【作者简介】李云娥，南开大学经济研究所博士生，副教授，天津　300071
【内容提要】宏观经济波动与产业结构变动密切相关，产业结构的调整必然会引发宏观经济波动。然而，由于各大产业的内部构成和运作方式存在重大差异，因此，它们的变动对宏观经济波动的贡献率是各不相同的。计量经济分析的结果表明，第二产业和第一产业对宏观经济波动贡献率最大，但是，第一产业的作用在统计上更为显著，而第三产业的变动与宏观经济波动之间不存在因果关系。而宏观经济波动不是产业结构调整的根本原因。
【摘 要 题】产业经济
【英文摘要】Macro economic fluctuation and industrial structure are closely related in that adjustment of the latter will definitely trigger the former. However, inner structures and operating modes of all major industries are quite different, so they make different contributions to macro economic fluctuation. The results of quantitative economic analysis indicate that the secondary and the primary industries make the maximum contribution to macro economic fluctuation. But the primary industry plays a statistically more significant role, while there isn't a cause-and-effect relationship between the change of the tertiary industry and macro economic fluctuation. The latter is not the fundamental reason for the adjustment of industrial structure.
【关 键 词】宏观经济波动/产业结构/格兰杰因果检验/脉冲响应函数/方差分解