AIA Group:A New Chapter Begins;Patience Required友邦保险[01299]   

研究机构：摩根士丹利亚洲 分析师： Ben Li ... 撰写日期：2010年12月02日

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    Compelling long-term story: We initiate coverage onAIA with an Overweight rating and a price target ofHK$25.60. Whilst the stock has performed well since itslisting, we see three reasons that investors shouldremain positive: 1) Attractive fundamentals,underpinned by AIA’s strong franchise quality andfinancial strength, with significant opportunity to paydividends in the longer term. 2) Solid medium-termgrowth profile. We note that our FY10E VNB is still30% below that of 2008; under the new managementteam, we are expecting AIA to recover to pre-crisislevels by 2013E. 3) Valuations remain reasonable.
    The stock is currently trading at 9x FY11E new businessmultiple and 1.26x P/EV – whilst not inexpensive, wesee a further 14% upside to our fundamental fair value.
    Favourable market trends in 2H10: We believe AIAshould benefit from the positive macro and markettrends since 1H10. Over the period, we note that mostcurrencies across Asia have appreciated 2-12% vs. theUSD and equity markets in the region are up 15% onaverage. We estimate that these impacts shouldincrease the EV by ~7%.
    Capital and regulatory news augers well for growth:AIA recently obtained approval from the Singaporeregulator to remit US$500mn of surplus capital beforethe end of 2010. In Hong Kong, the regulator has liftedSection 35 Orders, allowing the company to freelyimplement its dividend policy. In China, managementindicated that the CIRC has given approval to AIA toopen new sub-branches, for the first time in eight years.
    We have no concerns on AIA’s reserving: AIA’scurrent US GAAP reserving method is consistent withmost international insurers. In Asia, only Chineseinsurers have moved towards fair-value accounting forlife insurance liabilities.
    FY10E results the key near-term catalyst, likely to bein late February 2011
AIA Group:Unique pan-Asia exposure, VONB growth/margins upturn; initiation友邦保险[01299]   

研究机构：高盛高华证券 分析师： Roy Ra ... 撰写日期：2010年12月02日

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    We initiate on AIA with a Buy rating and 12-month target price of HK$26.75,implying 17% potential upside. We see AIA as an arguably/heretofore undermanagedbut unique pan-Asia life insurer with good revitalization prospects,led by a new CEO with a proven decades-long track record at Pru Asia/globally. While this turnaround may take time given its size/presence in 15Asian markets, we expect 15% value of new business (VONB) CAGR through2013E and a lift to new business margins and implied multiples as AIA rehires/re-builds, cross-sells higher-margin A&H in core markets, and bettercaptures growth in new markets, e.g. China, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam.