Solar:Overcapacity—smaller concern for tier-1 companies; initiate Jinko (Sell), Solarfun (Neutral)能源行业

研究机构：高盛高华证券 分析师： Amy So ... 撰写日期：2010年12月07日

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    We believe the recent selloff on oversupplyconcerns is overdone and see gainers (tier-1component/branded manufacturers) and sharedonors (marginal capacity players) in theupcoming oversupply environment.
    We believe the timeline for the new capacity oflow-cost polysilicon manufacturers to startproduction should be the trigger for shiftingdown the cost structure across the entire valuechain. Further, large-scale companies with strongbalance sheets such as JA Solar and Trina shouldbe able to benefit from lower cost of wafer supply,in our view, due to strong relationships andprepayment commitment for inexpensive supplies.
    We initiate on Jinko Solar with a Sell rating, since wesee it as a marginal player that will anticipate theupcoming ASP downcycle, and reduce shipments inan oversupply environment. We initiate on Solarfunwith Neutral as we believe its tier-2 branded and OEMplayer role makes it less attractive than tier-1 brandedand component manufacturers. We believe Hanwa’sacquisition of a 49.99% share in Solarfun should havelimited impact on the company in the near term.
    Our top Buy ideas: GCL-Poly (CL), JA Solar, TrinaWe retain Buy on GCL-Poly and add it to our CL onits large-scale wafer capacity with lowest coststructure. We retain Buy on JA Solar on its access tolow cost wafers, but remove it from CL as we seemore upside for GCL-Poly. We upgrade Trina to Buyfrom Neutral, as we think it is the best branded PVmodule maker with proven track record of supplychain management. We upgrade Suntech to Neutralfrom Sell, as we believe its internal wafer capacityshould bring upside to margin in the near-term. Werevise 2010-2012 EPS for our covered stocks by0% to 44% and TPs by -15% to +26%.