Bulkers: Depressed by supply; downgrading to Neutral stance公路港口航运行业

研究机构：高盛高华证券 分析师： Tom Ki ... 撰写日期：2010年12月21日

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    We downgrade our stance on bulk shipping to Neutral from Attractive aswe think high supply growth should continue to weigh on freight rates,undermining profitability for the next 1-2 years. We lower our bulker rateforecasts by 15%-17% on the back of a less favorable demand/supplyprofile, which underpins our EPS reduction for bulkers by18%-26% for2011E-2012E and 16% reduction for target price on average.
    Favor containerships over bulkers。
    We continue to favor containerships with an Attractive stance over bulkshipping on (1) a more favorable supply profile for containerships, (2) astronger-than-expected US recovery and (3) attractive valuations.
    OOIL is our top shipping name; CCH as preferred bulker playOOIL remains our top pick in shipping universe with 47% potential upsideto our 12-month EV/FV-based target price of HK$112.00 (unchanged). Keyrisk to our bullish view is industry capacity and pricing ill discipline. Thestock is trading at deep valuation of 0.78X 2011E EV/FV, implying 20% tothe peer group average of 0.98X. China COSCO (H) is our preferred bulkername with 28% potential upside. In our view, China COSCO shouldoutperform its peers due to its exposure to containerships. Being amainland carrier should also enable it to capture market share throughlong-term shipping contracts with domestic steel mills and power plants.
    Key rating changes。
    We upgrade Hanjin Shipping to Buy from Neutral as we think the stock iswell leveraged to a stronger-than-expected US recovery due to itsrelatively high exposure (c.45%) to Transpacific trade. We downgrade STXPan Ocean (KRW)/(SGD) and China Merchants Energy Shipping (CMES) toSell from Neutral. We think STXPO is most leveraged to weaker spot rateswithin the bulker universe. Meanwhile, CMES’ stock price is likely to behurt by both weak bulker and tanker rates.
    Key risks to our bulker view。
    Upside: Higher-than-expected cancellations/delays could accelerate theunwinding of the orderbook, leading to an earlier-than-expected recoveryof bulker rates. Downside: China policy on macro tightening and energyrationalization are the key risks to our bulk shipping demand forecasts.