Our 2011 Outlook 4
Key Themes and How to Play Them 7
Regulatory Reform Driving Business Model Evolution 7
OTC Derivatives Reform 7
Capital Standards & More Active Management 9
Organic Growth Prospects 11
M&A Cycle & Opportunities within Financials 12
Interest Rates – The Long & Short of It 13
Expense Control 15
Our Capital Markets Assumptions 16
Macroeconomic Outlook 16
Volume Outlook 17
Capital Markets Outlook: Business-by-Business Summary 18
Investment Banking 19
M&A/Financial Advisory 19
Restructuring 24
Debt Underwriting 26
Equity Underwriting 28
Trading 30
Trading Revenue Framework 30
Volumes & Activity Levels 31
Equities 33
Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange & Commodities 36
Putting It All Together… Our Revenue Expectations 40
Securities Servicing & Custody 41
Assets Under Custody & Servicing Fees 41
Securities Lending 45
Asset Management 47
Mutual Funds: Risk On-Equity Inflows to increase 48
Exchange-Traded Funds: Robust Growth Continues 49
Retail Brokerage 52
Asset Gathering 52
Trading Activity 53
Outlook: Broker-Dealers 55
Outlook: Advisory Firms 57
Outlook: Discount Retail Brokers 59
Outlook: Trust/Custody Banks 62
Outlook: Financial Exchanges 65
Outlook: Market Structure 70
Where Are We Versus Historic Valuations? 72