巴克莱: 110页全球经济展望报告(英文)


发布报告的机构名称：巴克莱资本
报告发布时间：
9 Dec2010
报告的文件格式（必写）：PDF。   
报告大小（必写）：2.2MB。
报告简介或目录：

OVERVIEW..........................................................................................................................................4
Don’t fight the reflation trade
Investors should stay long in equities for now, and watch for signs later in 2011 that central
banks are losing enthusiasm for reflation.
ASSET ALLOCATION.......................................................................................................................10
Equities are back
Equity risk premiums are high enough to warrant an overweight position in equities relative
to fixed income. As deleveraging in the consumer and public sectors continues to unfold,
however, we expect increases in volatility.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK.....................................................................................................................18
Recovery on track, despite slower growth in EM
We expect a moderate slowdown in the global economy, due mainly to a decline in export
growth and fiscal consolidation in Asia. Risks in Europe are still significant. Easy money in
advanced economies is generating policy dilemmas in emerging markets.
COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK..............................................................................................34
Scaling new highs
Commodity demand has continued to surprise to the upside in late 2010. Early 2011 is
shaping up to be a strong period for commodity prices, and we expect markets such as
copper, crude oil and corn to be amongst the best performers.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE OUTLOOK ...................................................................................................43
The majors still minor
The euro area crisis has dominated markets recently. We expect EUR/USD to depreciate a
little further over the next quarter. But as long as the pressure on Spain does not escalate
sharply, the EUR is likely to remain well above the previous trough of 1.19.
INTEREST RATES OUTLOOK...........................................................................................................48
More of the same or a new start?
Rates should stay range-bound for a few months before resuming their rise next year. We
expect a continued economic recovery and the tax cut extensions to pressure yields higher,
but that should be offset by strong Fed buying and the recent trend in US inflation data.
CREDIT MARKET OUTLOOK...........................................................................................................61
The great debate: High spread versus low yield
If we are truly in the new normal environment of lower trend growth levels, then we think it
is possible for credit to continue its bull run, although our expectations are for lower yearover-
year returns.
EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK...........................................................................................................74
Robust corporate profitability trumps political risk
With earnings likely to rise smartly, albeit at a slower pace than in 2010, an improving macro
outlook and ultra-easy Fed policy, our base case for the S&P 500 at year-end 2011 is 1,420.
EMERGING MARKETS OUTLOOK...................................................................................................92
A crowded consensus
The economic and financial backdrop remains supportive of risky assets. However,
investors should remain alert to the potential for disruptive events. Facing headwinds from
global rates markets, EM fixed income should deliver much less spectacular returns in 2011.