名称：Greater China Economics：Issues in Focus
机构：摩根斯坦利
时间：2010.12.9
篇幅：PDF80 PAGE
内容简介：

China: 2011 – A Year of Reflation
As the Goldilocks scenario in 2010 is close to running its
course, the lagged effect of massive monetary
expansion in 2009-10 is expected to provide strong
tailwinds for inflation in the near term. We forecast 9.0%
GDP growth and 4.5% CPI inflation for 2011, with the
risk of policy missteps not to be overlooked. Growth
momentum will likely weaken over the coming months,
as suggested by our MSCBCI Index. On the other hand,
raw materials inventory buildup, which tends to lead
finish goods inventory buildup, will likely decelerate over
the next six months and may constitute a modest drag
on economic growth beyond the next six months.
Hong Kong: Anticipating another Liquidity Party
Real GDP expanded 6.8% YoY in 3Q10, with the sharp
surge in service exports again a key driver of growth. We
lift our 2010 and 2011 GDP growth forecasts on the back
of stronger consumption supported by buoyant asset
markets amidst QE2, anticipation of which drove our
proxy of the total liquidity stock to a new record high of
HK$1.53trn, well above previous cycle peaks in October
2007 and November 2009. While we see limited impact
on the fundamental supply/demand conditions out of the
latest anti-speculation measures in the property market,
we believe it should serve to curb destabilizing
speculative activities amidst capital inflows and preempt
painful adjustments when conditions reverse.
Taiwan: Domestic Resilience Continues
Real GDP expanded 9.8% YoY in 3Q10, above our and
consensus forecasts, with upside surprises particularly
evident in private consumption and capex investment,
confirming our view that the economy is becoming more
domestically driven. Together with the buoyant
consumer and business confidence as well as the
improving economic outlook and closer cross-strait ties,
growth should remain robust in the face of slowdown of
the major economies. We believe that rate normalization
is well underway for the next few quarters, as the
liquidity environment remains abundant and inflation
potentially posing downside risk to the economy.