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Statistical Literacy--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Why take this course?为什么要学这一课程？
We are misled by numbers and by our misunderstanding of probability.我们或被数字所误导，或被自己对概率的错误理解所误导。
What you’ll learn:你将学到什么：
How to parse polls, play the odds, and embrace uncertainty.怎样剖析投票，怎样碰碰运气，以及怎样接受不确定性。
e use only 10 percent of our brain! That familiar statement is false—there’s no evidence to support it. Still, something about it just sounds right, so we internalize it and repeat it. Such is the power—and danger—of statistics.我们只用了大脑的10%！这个熟知的说法是错的——没有证据能支持它。然而，该说法听起来有些像对的，因而我们吸收并不断重复它。这便是统计的力量，也是统计的危险。
Our world is shaped by widespread statistical illiteracy. We fear things that probably won’t kill us (terrorist attacks) and ignore things that probably will (texting while driving). We buy lottery tickets. We fall prey to misleading gut instincts, which lead to biases like loss aversion—an inability to gauge risk against potential gain. The effects play out in the grocery store, the office, and the voting booth (not to mention the bedroom: People who are more risk-averse are less successful in love).统计无知影响着我们世界的发展。我们担心那些可能不会害死我们的事情（如恐怖袭击），却忽略那些可能害死我们的事情（如驾驶时发短信）。我们买彩票。我们深受直觉误导之害，直觉会让我们产生偏见，如损失厌恶——估计不到风险背后的潜在收益。其效果屡屡作用于杂货店、办公室和投票站（更不用提卧室了：越是不愿承担风险的人，爱情越容易失败）。
And it’s getting worse: We are now 53 percent more likely than our parents to trust polls of dubious merit. (That figure is totally made up. See?) Where do all these numbers that we remember so easily and cite so readily come from? How are they calculated, and by whom? How do we misuse them to make them say what we want them to? We’ll explore all of these questions in a sequence on sourcing statistics.而情况变得更糟的是：与父母相比，我们对可疑成绩的投票的信任度上升了53%。（这一数字完全是捏造出来的吗？）所有这些我们轻松记住、随手拈来的数字从何而来？它们怎么计算出来的，谁计算的？我们怎样滥用这些数字，以使之得出我们想要的结果？我们将在统计溯源的系列里探讨所有这些问题。
Next, this course will turn to the topic of probabilistic intuition. We’ll learn to judge what’s likely and unlikely—and what’s impossible to know. We’ll learn about distorting habits of mind like selection bias—and how to guard against them. We’ll gamble. We’ll read The Art of Probability for Scientists and Engineers by Richard Hamming, Expert Political Judgment by Philip Tetlock, and How to Cheat Your Friends at Poker by Penn Jillette and Mickey Lynn.接下来，该课程会转到概率直觉的主题上。我们将学习判断什么是可能的，什么是不可能的，还有什么是不可知的。我们将学习头脑的曲解习惯，如选择性偏倚，以及怎样对其进行防范。我们还将赌一把。我们将阅读理查德·汉明（Richard Hamming）[注1]所著《The Art of Probability for Scientists and Engineers》、菲利浦·泰洛克（Philip Tetlock）[注2]所著《Expert Political Judgment》，以及佩恩·吉列特（Penn Jillette）[注3]和米基·林恩（Mickey Lynn）所著《How to Cheat Your Friends at Poker》。
Finally, we’ll learn how to use statistics to our advantage. You don’t have to be an actuary to understand just how likely various potential outcomes actually are.最后，我们将学习怎样利用统计数据的优势。如果只是了解各种潜在结果到底可不可能，你用不着成为精算师。
Post-State Diplomacy----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Why take this course?为什么要学这一课程？
As the world becomes evermore atomized, understanding the new leaders and constituencies becomes increasingly important.因为世界始终在原子化，所以了解新领导人和新选民就愈渐重要了。
What you’ll learn:你将学到什么：
How to practice statecraft without states.怎样实践无关国家的治国之术。
rom tribal insurgents to multinational corporations, private charities to pirate gangs, religious movements to armies for hire, a range of organizations now compete with (and sometimes eclipse) the nation-states in which they reside. Without capitals or traditional constituencies, they can’t be persuaded or deterred by traditional tactics.从部落叛党到多国公司，从私人慈善团体到海盗匪帮，从宗教运动到雇佣军队，现在，一系列组织在与它们所属的民族国家竞争。没有首都，也没有传统意义上的选民，它们也不会被传统策略所说服或抑制。
But that doesn’t mean diplomacy is dead; quite the opposite. Negotiating with these parties requires the same skills as dealing with belligerent nations—understanding the shareholders and alliances they must answer to, the cultures that inform how they behave, and the religious, economic, and political interests they must address.但是这不意味着外交就消亡了；情况恰好相反。与这些团体谈判需要拥有对付交战国的相同技能——要了解谁是他们必需的股东，谁是他们必需的同盟，影响他们行为的文化是什么，以及哪些宗教、经济和政治利益是他们必须面对的。
Power has always depended on who can provide justice, commerce, and stability. Successful insurgents aren’t just thugs; they offer their members tangible benefits—community, money, education, and a sense of order (even if the rebels are the ones creating disorder in the first place). We must learn how they gain loyalty, even if our goal is to undercut it.权力总是要看谁能提供公正、贸易和稳定。成功的叛党不仅仅是暴徒；他们也为其成员提供好处——社群、金钱、教育和秩序感（即使反叛分子起初是制造骚乱的那些人）。我们必须学习他们怎样赢得忠心，即便我们的目标是要暗中破坏它。
In this course, we’ll study how some of the most influential entities on the world stage—religious extremists, criminal enterprises, diasporas—are at their most potent online and must be engaged there. Case in point: the South Ossetia War, in which Russian hackers set up websites that enabled anyone sympathetic to their cause to launch denial-of-service attacks against Georgian targets. We’ll learn how to go about winning over the hearts and minds of these transnational groups. This requires launching sophisticated media and political campaigns—in much the same way that underground samizdat publications and Radio Free Europe broadcasts served to undermine the international Communist movement during the Cold War.在本课程中，我们将学习世界舞台上一些最有影响力的实体——宗教极端分子、犯罪企业和流散者——是怎样在网上发挥其最大效力的，以及为何必须在网上活动。举个例子：在南奥塞梯战争中，俄罗斯黑客建立了网站，使得每个人都对他们向格鲁吉亚目标发起拒绝服务攻击表示同情。我们将学习怎样四处活动以赢得那些跨国组织的民心。这要求启动老练的媒体与政治攻势——与地下出版物和自由欧洲电台（冷战期间，用于逐渐削弱国际共产主义运动）的做法很相似。
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