:Positive for inflation control, neutral earnings impact银行和金融服务

研究机构：高盛高华证券 分析师： Ning M ... 撰写日期：2011年02月09日

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    PBOC announced it will raise loan rates by an average 23.6bp, time depositrates by 34.2bp, and hike demand deposit rates by 4bp. The increase ofshort-term deposit/loan rates is the same as the last hike last Dec. butdeposit/loan rates of longer maturities are hiked more/less than last time.
    Incremental positive to curb inflation; NIM/EPS impact largelyneutral。
    We believe the hike post CNY is fundamentally welcomed as it suggests the decisivemove of PBOC to curb inflation, which reduces our concerns of behind-the-curvetightening. The impact on NIM/EPS is largely neutral for banks, though relativelymore positive for smaller banks with higher L/D ratios, shorter loan maturities thatenjoy a higher loan pricing power and quicker loan pricing, including CMB, CNCB,Industrial, Minsheng. Big banks such as ICBC, CCB and ABC will have a slightnegative impact given their low L/D ratio and higher proportion of demand deposits,but the mitigation for rate hikes include: 1)loan pricing power gains (4Q10 averagepricing up 34/42 bp vs 3Q10/1Q10); 2) big banks' benefiting from surging ofinterbank/securities rates (3mon interbank rates/3-year treasury yield up 112bp/8bpytd/since last RRR hike); 3) Our NIM assumption of up 4bp yoy in 2010 on average isconservative post three rate hikes. We estimate big banks' NIM could be down 1.2bpand smaller banks' NIM could be up 0.7bp, assuming no loan pricing power gainsand 1pp deposit shift to time from demand deposits (3pp accumulative shift for 3hikes that we view is conservative), and 25bp interbank/securities yield gains . Weestimate the cumulative impact of the three recent rate hikes will be an average of3.0% accretive to listed banks’ 2011E NPAT.
    We also believe the asset quality pressure is manageable as current EBIT interestcover for industrial companies is at historical levels, and may be reduced to theprevious peak levels reached in 2007/2008 post additional 3 rate hikes.
    Incremental positive for inflation control/bank overhang reduction。
    While the timing for bank share price absolute upside may hinge on inflationcontrol timing, we are constructive on China banks, and would buy on any shareweakness amid tightening in 1Q11/1H11, given the strong earnings growth, likelynear-term removal of the two sector overhangs on local gov’t-owned entity NPLsand CAR requirements, and approaching P/B and P/E trough valuations duringthe global financial crisis in 4Q08 and in 1Q09. Our top picks include Buy-ratedICBC H/A, CCB A/H, ABC A, Industrial, CNCB H and CMB A (both Buy, on Conv.
    list). Key risks: behind-the-curve tightening; NIM disruptive rate hikes.