China Coal Sector:Raising coking coal prices, Hidili to Buy能源行业

研究机构：瑞银证券 分析师： Ghee P ... 撰写日期：2011年02月07日

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    We stress that the higher regional thermal coal prices mean imports are tooexpensive for China buyers. We expect China imports to slow down in Q1 and fordomestic inventories to draw down. After Chinese New Year, we expect domesticprices to tick up and still forecast 2011 average spot price at Rmb900/t, +14%YoY.
    We adjust thermal coal company earnings down to reflect contract price caps.
    Raising coking coal prices。
    We update our coking coal model for latest steel forecast and lower imports fromAustralia. Although we expect some supply growth from Shanxi, we raise 2011average coking coal price forecast by 9% to Rmb1,800/t, 22% higher YoY.
    Hidili - execution risks reflected, upgrade to Buy。
    At our recent conference, Hidili has guided for raw coal output of 4.9mt comparedto our forecast of 4.5mt. We maintain our output forecast and raise realised cokingcoal prices 16%, our 2011E EPS and price target by 27% to HK$10.63 and weupgrade to Buy from Neutral. We raise 2011 earnings 12% and our price target1.6% to HK$5.71 for Fushan but maintain Neutral.
    Adjusting TPs for thermal coal stocks, still positive。
    For the thermal coal stocks, we estimate that 62% of Shenhua’s total volumes and70% of China Coal’s volumes are on key contracts. We also reflect YanzhouCoal’s latest contract prices and also lower output by 200kt at the Yarrabee FelixMine. We adjust 2011E earnings and price targets by -14% to +1% for all threestocks but maintain our Buy ratings.