China’s growth to average 8.5% in next five years, says Allianz Global Investors Report
德盛安聯研究報告預估中國未來五年平均增長年率達8.5%



Allianz Global Investors (AllianzGI) believes that in 2011 China’s economy will be characterized by the following:-
德盛安聯資產管理(德盛安聯)相信二零一一年中國經濟將會出現以下境況:-


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AllianzGI predicts China’s GDP growth in the tune of 9% in 2011 and to average at 8.5% in the next five years
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德盛安聯預測二零一一年中國經濟增長為9%，而未來五年平均增長為8%
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New loans granted in 2010 to once again be well above the long-term average of around RMB 8,000 billion
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預期二零一零年新造貸款將再次遠高於約8萬億元人民幣的長期平均水平

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Further interest rates hikes likely in 2011 given rising domestic price pressure

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隨住國內物價壓力趨升，預計二零一一年進一步加息機會頗高

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RMB to appreciate moderately by 4% against the USD in 2011
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預期人民幣在二零一一年將溫和升值4%
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In a world likely to be devoid of a “consumer of last resort” in the form of the US, China’s focus in the years ahead will be more on its domestic growth forces, as reflected in the 12th Five-Year Plan to be passed in March
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在全球失去美國這個「最後消費者」的情況下，中國在未來數年更著重強化內需增長動力，這點亦於即將在三月被審議通過的第十二個五年計劃中反映



Mr. Gregor Eder, Senior Economist at Allianz responsible for Emerging Market Research, commented:
負責新興市場研究的安聯集團高級經濟學家Gregor Eder先生評論道:


“Two issues are likely to be the core of economic policy measures in 2011: the battle against overheating without compromising growth, and reform of the Chinese growth model.”
「二零一一年的兩個核心經濟政策將分別為：抵禦經濟過熱而不妨礙增長，以及中國增長模式的改革。」



“We believe that the Chinese government should be able to master the balancing act inherent in a ‘controlled growth slowdown’. China has proved capable of rising to this challenge several times in the past. Nevertheless, the risks associated with this particular balancing act are not to be taken lightly. We see possible negative (financial) repercussions above all on the state finance front and less so in the real economy. If, for example, a sharp rise in non-performing loans puts the Chinese banking system into a precarious spot, a capital injection from the government would be more than likely. It wouldn‘t be the first time, after all. “
「憑藉中央**過往多次處理這類問題的經驗，我們認為當局應能取得平衡，達致’可控制的增長放緩’。儘管如此，採用這種特定平衡措施所附帶的風險亦不容忽視，可能會對國家的金融體系造成負面的（財務）影響，但對實質經濟的影響應較輕微。例如，若不良貸款急增，令國內銀行體系陷入不穩局面，可能會迫使**注資市場，畢竟這也並非第一次。」