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2011-2-21 10:31:19

"美国金融危机(起因)调查委员会"的最终报告之不同意见1


Dissenting Statement



不同意见申明




一、Bill Thomas(委员会副主席),Keith HennesseyDouglas Holtz-Eakin 的报告

主要结论:


THE TEN ESSENTIAL CAUSES OF THE FINANCIAL



AND ECONOMIC CRISIS



导致经济、金融危机的十大主要原因:




Credit bubble.
Starting in the late 1990s, China, other large developing countries, and the big oil-producing nations built up large capital surpluses. They loaned these savings to the United States and Europe, causing interest rates to fall.
1、信用泡沫。
起始于上世纪90年代后期,中国、其他大型发展中国家和石油生产国获得了大量资产盈余,他们把这些积累贷给美国、欧洲,使得利率下降。


Housing bubble.
Beginning in the late 1990s and accelerating in the 2000s, there was a large and sustained housing bubble in the United States.
2、房地产泡沫。
起始于上世纪90年代后期,加速于2000年后,美国存在大量、持续的房地产泡沫。


Nontraditional mortgages.
Tightening credit spreads, overly optimistic assumptions about U.S. housing prices, and flaws in primary and secondary mortgage markets led to poor origination practices and combined to increase the flow of credit to U.S. housing finance.
3、非传统抵押贷款。
信用收益收窄、对美国房地产价格过于乐观的估计、初级和二级抵押贷款市场泛滥导致的问题原始贷款,三个因素组合起来,放大了美国房地产金融的信用规模。


Credit ratings and securitization.
Failures in credit rating and securitization transformed bad mortgages into toxic financial assets.
4、信用评级和证券化
信用评级的失误和证券化,使得问题抵押贷款转换成有毒金融资产。


Financial institutions concentrated correlated risk.
Managers of many large and midsize financial institutions in the United States amassed enormous concentrations of highly correlated housing risk.
5、金融机构汇集了关联风险
大量的美国大中型金融机构,汇集起了巨量、高关联的房地产风险。


Leverage and liquidity risk.
Managers of these financial firms amplified this concentrated housing risk by holding too little capital relative to the risks they were carrying on their balance sheets.
6、杠杆和流动性风险
在资产负债表中,大中型金融机构对那些房地产集中性风险计提了太少的资本准备。


Risk of contagion.
The risk of contagion was an essential cause of the crisis. In some cases, the financial system was vulnerable because policymakers were afraid of a large firm’s sudden and disorderly failure triggering balance-sheet losses in its counterparties.
7、传染的风险
对传染的担忧是这次危机的一个根本原因。由于政策制定者对大型企业快速或无序倒闭、引发交易对手资产负债表损失的担忧,使得金融体系异常脆弱。
金融冲击和恐慌,导致了实体经济的剧烈紧缩。




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1850 2
2011-02-21


Common shock.
In other cases, unrelated financial institutions failed because of a common shock: they made similar failed bets on housing.
8、相同的冲击
在另一些情况中,毫不相干金融机构的失败,是因为遭受了相同的冲击——他们在房地产中赌错了方向。


Financial shock and panic.
In quick succession in September 2008, the failures, near-failures, and restructurings of ten firms triggered a global financial panic.
9、金融冲击和恐慌
10家企业在20089月的相继快速倒闭或临近倒闭和重组,引发了全球范围的金融恐慌。


Financial crisis causes economic crisis.
The financial shock and panic caused a severe contraction in the real economy.
10、金融危机导致了经济危机




二、Peter J. WallisonArthur F. Burns的报告

主要结论:

I believe that the sine qua non of the financial crisis was U.S. government housing policy, which led to the creation of 27 million subprime and other risky loans—half of all mortgages in the United States—which were ready to default as soon as the massive 1997-2007 housing bubble began to deflate.

“我认为,美国**的房产政策是这次金融危机的必要条件,这个政策制造了2700万笔次级贷款和其他风险贷款(有一半是在美国的抵押贷款),这些贷款在1997-2007年大量的房地产泡沫开始破灭期间已经接近违约。”





(翻译 ygs

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2011-2-21 15:32:01
故意整的可能是有的
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