Issues in Inflation: Key questions for the inflation outlook
Introduction
1 The bigger picture: Money & the expectations peg
1.1 The price of money
1.2 Money & inflation: the data
1.3 1700s – WWII: Wars & gold discoveries
1.4 The Great Inflation: Bad policy, bad theory
1.5 Lessons for the outlook in the context of unconventional policy
2 How strong are current disinflationary forces? Lessons from the Great Moderation
2.1 Inflation modeling in the Great Moderation
2.2 What has changed? From output gaps to inflation expectations
2.3 What does it mean for the medium-term outlook?
3 Globalisation: From disinflationary or inflationary?
3.1 A change in relative prices
3.2 Implications for monetary policy and the inflation outlook
4 What are the inflation risks from 'unconventional' monetary policy?
4.1 The disconnect between money supply growth and central bank money creation
4.2 An exit into uncharted territory
5 Will monetary policy frameworks change?
5.1 Will inflation targets rise, either permanently or temporarily?
5.2 Will price stability remain the sole objective of central banks?
6 Will high public debt levels be inflationary?
6.1 Public sector finances at risk of becoming unsustainable
6.2 Inflation is not an obvious solution
7 Inflation protection: How and at what price?
Conclusion