Driver IC: Bargaining power critical to sustain profit margins

研究机构：高盛高华证券 分析师： Liang- ... 撰写日期：2011年04月01日

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    We initiate Novatek (3034.TW) and Chipbond (6147.TWO) with a Neutralrating as we believe other Taiwan technology stocks offer more potentialupside. Between the two, we prefer Chipbond over Novatek givenChipbond’s increasing bargaining power post-consolidation, and relativelyhigher potential upside to our Director’s Cut-based target price.
    Though we believe the LCD industry will rebound in the next two quarters,we expect Novatek’s revenue momentum to be more tepid than panelmakers such as AUO and CMI as it has lower beta than panel makers, andthe share gains made by smartphones will not have a significant effect onNovatek’s overall growth in 2011, due to higher competition in thissegment. We expect Chipbond’s revenue momentum to outperform theoverall industry given the company’s higher skew towards the fastergrowingsmartphone and tablet markets.
    We believe market consolidation has helped Chipbond’s leverage, leadingto stronger fundamental performance. After the merger of InternationalSemiconductor Technology (IST) in April 2010, Chipbond’s 2010 FCF hasreturned to levels before the global financial crisis. Novatek lacksopportunities for any similar consolidation, in our view, as its competitorsare mainly panel makers’ in-house producers.
    The resolution of the screen is critical to driver IC demand in terms of unitdemand for large driver ICs and new product cycle for small driver ICs. AsFHD penetration for large-sized panels is already high, in order to trigger anew demand cycle, in our view, we need to see 1) Handset makersadopting Apple’s Retina display resolution aggressively; 2) Apple applyingRetina to tablets with 4X the current resolution.
    Our 12-month target prices for Novatek and Chipbond are NT$95/NT$51,both based on Director’s Cut, implying 12.5X/10X 2011 P/E. Our EPSnumbers for Novatek in 2011E/2012E/2013E are NT$7.60/7.80/7.57 and forChipbond NT$5.26/NT$5.64/NT$5.75.