老师您好,想请教一个关于盈余预测的问题。hou(2010)的文章中说:“For each firm, we estimate expected earnings for years t+1, t+2, and t+3 (i.e., Et[Et+1], Et[Et+2], and Et[Et+3], where Et[] is the expectation operator) by multiplying the independent variables observed at the end of year t with the coefficients from the pooled regression estimated using the previous ten years (three years minimum) of data. This is to ensure that our earnings forecasts are out of sample (that is, all the information that is required to forecast earnings for years t+1, t+2, and t+3 is available at the end of year t).”
是不是在计算中每一年的预测时都需要用提前10年至少是3年的数据,而不能包含所需估计年份以后的样本数据呢?(比如要估计2016年盈余数据,就是不可以把2020的样本数据放入回归中的?)那在您“剩余收益模型RIM”的do文件中用的是:
reg Earnings_1 计算所需的自变量 , r
est store reg_1
predict f1, xb
这个是不是就默认把所有年份的数据都纳入进去进行估计预测了呀?这样是可以的嘛?
菜鸟新手不是很懂,还麻烦老师能指点一下!

非常感谢!!