摘要翻译：
近年来，用于货物运输的自主船舶得到了广泛的关注。他们承诺的好处，如减少船员成本，增加安全性和灵活性。本文探讨了通过利用计算机处理器和先进的能量存储等快速改进的技术领域，在海上航运中实现技术性能更快增长的效果。基于几种运输方式（货船、航空、铁路、卡车运输）的历史改进率，采用简化的马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)模拟多式联运模型(IMTM)来探讨不同技术改进率对AS的影响。结果显示，传统航运的年改进率（海洋货船=2.6%、航空货运=5.5%、卡车运输=0.6%、铁路=1.9%、内河运输=0.4%)低于计算机处理器(35.6%)、燃料电池（14.7%）和汽车自主硬件（27.9%）等与自动化相关的技术。截至2050年的IMTM模拟表明，任何自主运输方式的引入都将增加低成本运输选择方面的竞争，但不太可能显著改变运输方式成本的总体分配。其次，如果所有形式的运输最终都转向自治系统，那么围绕改进率的不确定性就产生了一个复杂的多式联运解决方案，涉及几种选择，随着时间的推移，所有这些方案的成本都要低得多。最终，这项研究表明，需要更准确地测量当前的自主运输成本，以及它们如何随着时间的推移而变化。
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英文标题：
《A Quantitative Analysis of Possible Futures of Autonomous Transport》
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作者：
Christopher L. Benson and Pranav D Sumanth and Alina P Colling
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最新提交年份：
2018
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：Econometrics        计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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英文摘要：
  Autonomous ships (AS) used for cargo transport have gained a considerable amount of attention in recent years. They promise benefits such as reduced crew costs, increased safety and increased flexibility. This paper explores the effects of a faster increase in technological performance in maritime shipping achieved by leveraging fast-improving technological domains such as computer processors, and advanced energy storage. Based on historical improvement rates of several modes of transport (Cargo Ships, Air, Rail, Trucking) a simplified Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) simulation of an intermodal transport model (IMTM) is used to explore the effects of differing technological improvement rates for AS. The results show that the annual improvement rates of traditional shipping (Ocean Cargo Ships = 2.6%, Air Cargo = 5.5%, Trucking = 0.6%, Rail = 1.9%, Inland Water Transport = 0.4%) improve at lower rates than technologies associated with automation such as Computer Processors (35.6%), Fuel Cells (14.7%) and Automotive Autonomous Hardware (27.9%). The IMTM simulations up to the year 2050 show that the introduction of any mode of autonomous transport will increase competition in lower cost shipping options, but is unlikely to significantly alter the overall distribution of transport mode costs. Secondly, if all forms of transport end up converting to autonomous systems, then the uncertainty surrounding the improvement rates yields a complex intermodal transport solution involving several options, all at a much lower cost over time. Ultimately, the research shows a need for more accurate measurement of current autonomous transport costs and how they are changing over time.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.01696