摘要翻译：
美国个人医疗保健支出的统计描述和模型已被开发用于衡量医疗保健价值。我们发现有证据表明，医疗保健支出可以量化为一个输液-扩散过程，可以直观地认为，这个过程是治疗强度的稳定变化叠加在一个反映治疗效率和有效性变化的随机过程上。算术平均值代表医疗保健的净平均年费用；当乘以代表有效风险的算术标准差时，其结果就是对医疗费用控制的度量。降低这些参数的政策制定者、提供者、支付者或患者正在为医疗保健创造价值。该模型的平均绝对预测误差在支出范围内约为10-12%，在近10年期间跨越6个数量级。对于支出最大的1%人口，即占医疗保健总支出的20%-30%，出现了幂律关系。这种关系也适用于美国最昂贵的医疗条件。医疗保健支出和数学金融之间的基本联系是通过表明医疗保健支出遵循的过程类似于管理金融资产的广泛使用的模型来发现的，从而得出结论，这两个领域的结合可能产生有用的结果。
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英文标题：
《Measuring Value in Healthcare》
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作者：
Christopher Gardner
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最新提交年份：
2008
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分类信息：

一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Medical Physics        医学物理学
分类描述：Radiation therapy. Radiation dosimetry. Biomedical imaging modelling.  Reconstruction, processing, and analysis. Biomedical system modelling and analysis. Health physics. New imaging or therapy modalities.
放射治疗。辐射剂量学。生物医学成像建模。重建、处理和分析。生物医学系统建模与分析。健康物理学。新的成像或治疗方式。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Statistical Finance        统计金融
分类描述：Statistical, econometric and econophysics analyses with applications to financial markets and economic data
统计、计量经济学和经济物理学分析及其在金融市场和经济数据中的应用
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英文摘要：
  A statistical description and model of individual healthcare expenditures in the US has been developed for measuring value in healthcare. We find evidence that healthcare expenditures are quantifiable as an infusion-diffusion process, which can be thought of intuitively as a steady change in the intensity of treatment superimposed on a random process reflecting variations in the efficiency and effectiveness of treatment. The arithmetic mean represents the net average annual cost of healthcare; and when multiplied by the arithmetic standard deviation, which represents the effective risk, the result is a measure of healthcare cost control. Policymakers, providers, payors, or patients that decrease these parameters are generating value in healthcare. The model has an average absolute prediction error of approximately 10-12% across the range of expenditures which spans 6 orders of magnitude over a nearly 10-year period. For the top 1% of the population with the largest expenditures, representing 20%-30% of total spending on healthcare, a power-law relationship emerges. This relationship also applies to the most expensive medical conditions in the US. A fundamental connection between healthcare expenditures and mathematical finance is found by showing that the process healthcare expenditures follow is similar to a widely used model for managing financial assets, leading to the conclusion that a combination of these two fields may yield useful results.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0806.2397