摘要翻译：
发达国家的实际GDP增长率被发现是两个项的总和。第一项是平均收入增长期与工作经验的倒数值TCR。美国目前的Tcr值为40年。第二个术语本质上与人口有关，由特定年龄（美国为9岁）的人口数量的相对变化定义，(1/2)*DN9(t)/N9(t)，其中N9(t)是在时间t时9岁儿童的数量。Tcr以人均实际GDP的平方根增长。因此，实际GDP的演变仅由一个参数来定义--特定年龄的人口数量。对美国、英国和法国的预测进行了介绍和讨论。对实际人均GDP也得出了类似的关系。人均GDP年增量也是经济趋势项和相同特定年龄人口项的组合。过去55年的经济趋势值等于400美元（2002年美国元）除以实际人均国内生产总值。因此，经济趋势项的渐近值为零。通过反演测算的GDP值来恢复1955-2003年间特定年龄人口的相应变化。基于国内生产总值的人口恢复方法可能比常规人口普查具有更高的准确性。
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英文标题：
《GDP growth rate and population》
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作者：
Ivan O. Kitov
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最新提交年份：
2008
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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英文摘要：
  Real GDP growth rate in developed countries is found to be a sum of two terms. The first term is the reciprocal value of the duration of the period of mean income growth with work experience, Tcr. The current value of Tcr in the USA is 40 years. The second term is inherently related to population and defined by the relative change in the number of people with a specific age (9 years in the USA), (1/2)*dN9(t) /N9(t), where N9(t) is the number of 9-year-olds at time t. The Tcr grows as the square root of real GDP per capita. Hence, evolution of real GDP is defined by only one parameter - the number of people of the specific age. Predictions for the USA, the UK, and France are presented and discussed. A similar relationship is derived for real GDP per capita. Annual increment of GDP per capita is also a combination of economic trend term and the same specific age population term. The economic trend term during last 55 years is equal to $400 (2002 US dollars) divided by the attained level of real GDP per capita. Thus, the economic trend term has an asymptotic value of zero. Inversion of the measured GDP values is used to recover the corresponding change of the specific age population between 1955 and 2003. The population recovery method based on GDP potentially is of a higher accuracy than routine censuses.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0811.2125