摘要翻译：
我们研究了转移-份额回归设计中的推论，例如当一个区域结果在一个部门冲击的加权平均数上回归时，使用区域部门份额作为权重。我们进行了一项安慰剂练习，在该练习中，我们估计了由随机产生的部门冲击构建的转移份额回归子对美国通勤区实际劳动力市场结果的影响。基于5%名义显著性水平的常用标准误差的测试拒绝了高达55%的安慰剂样本的无效。我们使用一个程式化的经济模型来表明，这种过度拒绝问题的出现是因为回归残差在具有相似部门份额的地区之间是相关的，而不是它们的地理位置。我们导出了新的推理方法，这些方法在任意跨区域相关性的回归残差下都是有效的。我们用移位-份额设计的流行应用表明，我们的方法在实践中可能导致明显更宽的置信区间。
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英文标题：
《Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference》
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作者：
Rodrigo Ad\~ao and Michal Koles\'ar and Eduardo Morales
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最新提交年份：
2019
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：Econometrics        计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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英文摘要：
  We study inference in shift-share regression designs, such as when a regional outcome is regressed on a weighted average of sectoral shocks, using regional sector shares as weights. We conduct a placebo exercise in which we estimate the effect of a shift-share regressor constructed with randomly generated sectoral shocks on actual labor market outcomes across U.S. Commuting Zones. Tests based on commonly used standard errors with 5\% nominal significance level reject the null of no effect in up to 55\% of the placebo samples. We use a stylized economic model to show that this overrejection problem arises because regression residuals are correlated across regions with similar sectoral shares, independently of their geographic location. We derive novel inference methods that are valid under arbitrary cross-regional correlation in the regression residuals. We show using popular applications of shift-share designs that our methods may lead to substantially wider confidence intervals in practice.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.07928