摘要翻译：
呼叫中心的管理者希望获得准确的呼叫到达点和分布预测，以实现服务质量和运营成本之间的最佳平衡。我们提出了一种基于三个支柱的呼叫到达预测模型的选择策略：（一）损失函数的灵活性；(ii)预测精度的统计评价；(iii)使用货币指标对预测业绩进行经济评估。我们实现了十四个时间序列模型和七个预测组合方案对三个系列的每日呼叫到达。虽然我们主要关注点预测，但我们也分析了密度预测评估。我们表明二阶矩模型对于点和密度预测都是重要的，简单的季节随机游走模型总是优于更一般的规范。我们的结果表明，呼叫中心管理者应该投资于预测模型的使用，这些预测模型描述了呼叫到达的第一和第二时刻。
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英文标题：
《Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for
  Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers》
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作者：
Andrea Bastianin, Marzio Galeotti, Matteo Manera
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最新提交年份：
2018
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：Econometrics        计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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英文摘要：
  Call centers' managers are interested in obtaining accurate point and distributional forecasts of call arrivals in order to achieve an optimal balance between service quality and operating costs. We present a strategy for selecting forecast models of call arrivals which is based on three pillars: (i) flexibility of the loss function; (ii) statistical evaluation of forecast accuracy; (iii) economic evaluation of forecast performance using money metrics. We implement fourteen time series models and seven forecast combination schemes on three series of daily call arrivals. Although we focus mainly on point forecasts, we also analyze density forecast evaluation. We show that second moments modeling is important both for point and density forecasting and that the simple Seasonal Random Walk model is always outperformed by more general specifications. Our results suggest that call center managers should invest in the use of forecast models which describe both first and second moments of call arrivals.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1804.08315