摘要翻译：
本文延续了我们对2010年12月发布的黄金价格动态(ABS/1012.4118)的分析，并预测了2011年4-6月“黄金泡沫破裂”的可能性。我们最近的分析表明，在2011年7月最终崩溃之前，可能还会有一次实质性的波动。另一方面，在2011年初，我们发现了一些其他商品泡沫，并预测它们将在2011年5月至6月开始崩溃。我们证明，这种崩溃实际上已经开始，这与即将到来的黄金泡沫破裂一起表明，世界体系正在进入一个分叉区，承受着第二波全球金融-经济危机的相当高的风险。事实上，一方面，很明显，这种崩溃可能会导致外汇游戏的许多主要参与者及其依赖的公司和银行的巨大损失甚至破产。因此，市场的即时反应很可能是完全负面的。对市场的负面影响很可能因媒体和商业报刊的大量出版物而放大，这些出版物与1980年代初和以前类似的事件以及破产公司股东的损失相类比。另一方面，对黄金的投资也导致资金从股票市场投资中转移，并导致商品和服务生产的减少。如果在崩溃之时，发达国家和/或发展中国家出现了一些有希望的投资领域，投资可以转移到这些市场，相反，这可能有助于生产新的商品和服务，加速摆脱危机。石油（和其他能源/矿物资源）价格的下降也显然有助于加快世界经济增长率和世界经济复苏。
---
英文标题：
《The Second Wave of the Global Crisis? A Log-Periodic Oscillation
  Analysis of Commodity Price Series》
---
作者：
Askar Akaev, Alexei Fomin, and Andrey Korotayev
---
最新提交年份：
2011
---
分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Statistical Finance        统计金融
分类描述：Statistical, econometric and econophysics analyses with applications to financial markets and economic data
统计、计量经济学和经济物理学分析及其在金融市场和经济数据中的应用
--

---
英文摘要：
  This article continues our analysis of the gold price dynamics that was published in December 2010 (abs/1012.4118) and forecasted the possibility of the "burst of the gold bubble" in April - June 2011. Our recent analysis suggests the possibility of one more substantial fluctuation before the final collapse in July 2011. On the other hand, in early 2011 we detected a number of other commodity bubbles and forecasted the start of their collapse in May - June 2011. We demonstrate that this collapse has actually begun, which in conjunction with the forthcoming burst of the gold bubble suggests that the World System is entering a bifurcation zone bearing rather high risks of the second wave of the global financial-economic crisis. Indeed, on the one hand, it is obvious that such a collapse may lead to huge losses or even bankruptcies of many of the major participants of exchange games and their dependent firms and banks. Therefore, the immediate market reaction is likely to be entirely negative. Negative impact on the market could well be amplified by numerous publications in the media and business press, drawing analogies with the events of the early 1980s and earlier similar events, as well as by losses of shareholders of bankrupt companies. On the other hand, investments in gold also lead to the diversion of funds from stock market investments and to the reduction in the production of goods and services. If at the time of the collapse some promising areas of investment appear in the developed and / or developing countries, the investment can move to those markets, which, on the contrary, could contribute to the production of new goods and services and accelerate the way out of the crisis. It is also obvious that the decline of the oil (and other energy/mineral resources) prices may contribute to acceleration of world economic growth rates and world economic recovery.
---
PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1107.0480