摘要翻译:
国内外学者对我国地区差距及其演变进行了大量的研究,但在结论上存在较大差异。这是什么原因呢?我们认为这主要是由于不同的分析方法、视角、空间单元、统计指标以及不同的研究时期造成的。在前人分析和研究结果的基础上,进一步进行了定量计算和实证研究,揭示了1952-2000年经济发展的省际差距和地区差距及其演变趋势。结果表明:(一)中国经济发展的地区差距,包括省际差距、地区间差距和地区内差距,多年来一直存在;(b)基尼系数和泰尔系数揭示了中国省际经济发展比较差距的相似动态趋势。1952~1978年,除“大跃进”时期外,比较差距基本呈上升趋势,1979~1990年则呈缓慢下降趋势。之后,从1991年到2000年,差距又呈缓慢上升趋势;(c)上海与贵州的比较表明,多年来省际绝对差距较大;1966-1978年间的Hurst指数(h=0.5)表明我国省际经济发展比较差距具有随机性,1979-2000年间的Hurst指数(h>0.5)表明这一时期我国省际经济发展比较差距的演变具有长期性。
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英文标题:
《Quantitative analysis on the disparity of regional economic development
in China and its evolution from 1952 to 2000》
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作者:
Jianhua Xu, Nanshan Ai, Yan Lu, Yong Chen, Yiying Ling, Wenze Yue
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最新提交年份:
2018
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分类信息:
一级分类:Statistics 统计学
二级分类:Applications 应用程序
分类描述:Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学,教育学,流行病学,工程学,环境科学,医学,物理科学,质量控制,社会科学
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一级分类:Economics 经济学
二级分类:Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述:Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论,微观计量经济学,宏观计量经济学,通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容,统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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一级分类:Physics 物理学
二级分类:Chaotic Dynamics 混沌动力学
分类描述:Dynamical systems, chaos, quantum chaos, topological dynamics, cycle expansions, turbulence, propagation
动力系统,混沌,量子混沌,拓扑动力学,循环展开,湍流,传播
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英文摘要:
Domestic and foreign scholars have already done much research on regional disparity and its evolution in China, but there is a big difference in conclusions. What is the reason for this? We think it is mainly due to different analytic approaches, perspectives, spatial units, statistical indicators and different periods for studies. On the basis of previous analyses and findings, we have done some further quantitative computation and empirical study, and revealed the inter-provincial disparity and regional disparity of economic development and their evolution trends from 1952-2000. The results shows that (a) Regional disparity in economic development in China, including the inter-provincial disparity, inter-regional disparity and intra-regional disparity, has existed for years; (b) Gini coefficient and Theil coefficient have revealed a similar dynamic trend for comparative disparity in economic development between provinces in China. From 1952 to 1978, except for the "Great Leap Forward" period, comparative disparity basically assumes a upward trend and it assumed a slowly downward trend from 1979 to1990. Afterwards from 1991 to 2000 the disparity assumed a slowly upward trend again; (c) A comparison between Shanghai and Guizhou shows that absolute inter-provincial disparity has been quite big for years; and (d) The Hurst exponent (H=0.5) in the period of 1966-1978 indicates that the comparative inter-provincial disparity of economic development showed a random characteristic, and in the Hurst exponent (H>0.5) in period of 1979-2000 indicates that in this period the evolution of the comparative inter-provincial disparity of economic development in China has a long-enduring characteristic.
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PDF链接:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.10794