摘要翻译：
2009年4月，我们引入了一个模型，将汽车燃料价格（交通消费价格指数的一个子类）相对于整体CPI的演变作为时间的线性函数。在我们的框架下，所有偏离线性趋势的价格都是短暂的，价格必须迅速回归趋势。具体而言，该模型预测，“到2009年底，美国的汽车燃料价格也将上涨50%。石油价格预计也将从目前每桶50美元上涨50%”。实际价格的行为表明，这种预测在振幅和轨迹形状上都是准确的。因此，可以得出将价格分解为短期（振荡）和长期（线性趋势）成分的概念是有效的。根据该模型，在未来5到8年内，汽车燃料和原油的价格将下降到每桶30美元的水平。
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英文标题：
《Crude oil and motor fuel: Fair price revisited》
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作者：
Ivan O. Kitov, Oleg I. Kitov
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最新提交年份：
2010
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Statistical Finance        统计金融
分类描述：Statistical, econometric and econophysics analyses with applications to financial markets and economic data
统计、计量经济学和经济物理学分析及其在金融市场和经济数据中的应用
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英文摘要：
  In April 2009, we introduced a model representing the evolution of motor fuel price (a subcategory of the consumer price index of transportation) relative to the overall CPI as a linear function of time. Under our framework, all price deviations from the linear trend are transient and the price must promptly return to the trend. Specifically, the model predicted that "the price for motor fuel in the US will also grow by 50% by the end of 2009. Oil price is expected to rise by ~50% as well, from its current value of ~$50 per barrel". The behavior of actual price has shown that this prediction is accurate in both amplitude and trajectory shape. Hence, one can conclude that the concept of price decomposition into a short-term (oscillating) and long-term (linear trend) components is valid. According to the model, the price of motor fuel and crude oil will be falling to the level of $30 per barrel during the next 5 to 8 years.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1005.0051