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2022-03-08
摘要翻译:
经济危机的成因是经济学研究的一个核心问题。本文提出了一个长期竞争市场模型,证明了在一个经济系统中,在长时间尺度上,行为的多样性表现为统计规律(完全竞争市场服从玻色-爱因斯坦统计,纯垄断-竞争市场服从玻尔兹曼统计),以及企业之间的相互作用如何影响竞争市场的演化。完全竞争是最有效的,这已被广泛接受。我们的研究表明,完全竞争系统作为竞争市场的一种极端情况,是最有效的,但不稳定的,当社会达到充分就业时会引发经济危机。在我们的模型所揭示的经济危机中,许多企业凝聚(崩溃)到最低供给水平(零供给,即破产状态),类似于玻色-爱因斯坦凝聚。这种奇怪的现象的出现是因为完全竞争(同质竞争)等于对称(不可区分)的投资方向,这是一个天性所憎恶的事实。因此,我们主张促进垄断竞争(异质竞争)而不是完全竞争。为了提供经济危机的早期预警,我们引入了一个投资解决指数,该指数在经济危机前夕接近于零。另一方面,作为一个深刻的结论,我们的模型揭示了一个长期社会或经济系统的技术水平与该系统的自由(无序)成正比;换句话说,技术等于系统的熵。作为这一新概念的应用,我们对李约瑟问题给出了一个可能的答案:“为什么尽管传统中国取得了巨大的成就,但科学和工业革命发生在欧洲,而不是在中国?”
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英文标题:
《Competitive market for multiple firms and economic crisis》
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作者:
Yong Tao
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最新提交年份:
2010
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分类信息:

一级分类:Physics        物理学
二级分类:Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述:Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体(人类或其他)的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统(如能源网、运输网络)的物理和工程。
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一级分类:Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类:General Finance        一般财务
分类描述:Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要:
  The origin of economic crises is a key problem for economics. We present a model of long-run competitive markets to show that the multiplicity of behaviors in an economic system, over a long time scale, emerge as statistical regularities (perfectly competitive markets obey Bose-Einstein statistics and purely monopolistic-competitive markets obey Boltzmann statistics) and that how interaction among firms influences the evolutionary of competitive markets. It has been widely accepted that perfect competition is most efficient. Our study shows that the perfectly competitive system, as an extreme case of competitive markets, is most efficient but not stable, and gives rise to economic crises as society reaches full employment. In the economic crisis revealed by our model, many firms condense (collapse) into the lowest supply level (zero supply, namely bankruptcy status), in analogy to Bose-Einstein condensation. This curious phenomenon arises because perfect competition (homogeneous competitions) equals symmetric (indistinguishable) investment direction, a fact abhorred by nature. Therefore, we urge the promotion of monopolistic competition (heterogeneous competitions) rather than perfect competition. To provide early warning of economic crises, we introduce a resolving index of investment, which approaches zero in the run-up to an economic crisis. On the other hand, our model discloses, as a profound conclusion, that the technological level for a long-run social or economic system is proportional to the freedom (disorder) of this system; in other words, technology equals the entropy of system. As an application of this new concept, we give a possible answer to the Needham question: "Why was it that despite the immense achievements of traditional China it had been in Europe and not in China that the scientific and industrial revolutions occurred?"
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PDF链接:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1010.1413
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