摘要翻译：
从最近的研究中发现，温度和辐射强迫似乎具有线性趋势的特征，增长率有两个变化。第一次发生在60年代初，表明温度和辐射强迫序列的增长率都有很大的增加。这被称为“持续全球变暖的开始”。第二个与最近的所谓间歇期有关，这表明自90年代中期以来，温度和总辐射强迫的增加速度低于1960年至1990年的增加速度。有两个问题仍未解决。第一个问题是温度和辐射强迫的趋势函数的斜率上的断裂是否普遍。这一点很重要，因为气候变化的基础科学将有力地表明人为因素对温度的因果影响。第二个问题涉及通过考虑到系列噪声的适当测试程序正式确定自90年代中期以来温度是否确实存在“间歇期”。这是很重要的，因为这样的测试将反驳广泛持有的观点，即中断是自然的内部变异性的产物。我们的论文提供了与这两个问题相关的测试。结果表明，温度和辐射强迫的断裂是普遍存在的，裂孔的特征是其生长速率显著降低。统计结果是独立的利益和适用更普遍。
---
英文标题：
《Inference Related to Common Breaks in a Multivariate System with Joined
  Segmented Trends with Applications to Global and Hemispheric Temperatures》
---
作者：
Dukpa Kim, Tatsushi Oka, Francisco Estrada, Pierre Perron
---
最新提交年份：
2018
---
分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：Econometrics        计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
--
一级分类：Mathematics        数学
二级分类：Statistics Theory        统计理论
分类描述：Applied, computational and theoretical statistics: e.g. statistical inference, regression, time series, multivariate analysis, data analysis, Markov chain Monte Carlo, design of experiments, case studies
应用统计、计算统计和理论统计：例如统计推断、回归、时间序列、多元分析、数据分析、马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗、实验设计、案例研究
--
一级分类：Statistics        统计学
二级分类：Applications        应用程序
分类描述：Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学，教育学，流行病学，工程学，环境科学，医学，物理科学，质量控制，社会科学
--
一级分类：Statistics        统计学
二级分类：Methodology        方法论
分类描述：Design, Surveys, Model Selection, Multiple Testing, Multivariate Methods, Signal and Image Processing, Time Series, Smoothing, Spatial Statistics, Survival Analysis, Nonparametric and Semiparametric Methods
设计，调查，模型选择，多重检验，多元方法，信号和图像处理，时间序列，平滑，空间统计，生存分析，非参数和半参数方法
--
一级分类：Statistics        统计学
二级分类：Statistics Theory        统计理论
分类描述：stat.TH is an alias for math.ST. Asymptotics, Bayesian Inference, Decision Theory, Estimation, Foundations, Inference, Testing.
Stat.Th是Math.St的别名。渐近，贝叶斯推论，决策理论，估计，基础，推论，检验。
--

---
英文摘要：
  What transpires from recent research is that temperatures and radiative forcing seem to be characterized by a linear trend with two changes in the rate of growth. The first occurs in the early 60s and indicates a very large increase in the rate of growth of both temperature and radiative forcing series. This was termed as the "onset of sustained global warming". The second is related to the more recent so-called hiatus period, which suggests that temperatures and total radiative forcing have increased less rapidly since the mid-90s compared to the larger rate of increase from 1960 to 1990. There are two issues that remain unresolved. The first is whether the breaks in the slope of the trend functions of temperatures and radiative forcing are common. This is important because common breaks coupled with the basic science of climate change would strongly suggest a causal effect from anthropogenic factors to temperatures. The second issue relates to establishing formally via a proper testing procedure that takes into account the noise in the series, whether there was indeed a `hiatus period' for temperatures since the mid 90s. This is important because such a test would counter the widely held view that the hiatus is the product of natural internal variability. Our paper provides tests related to both issues. The results show that the breaks in temperatures and radiative forcing are common and that the hiatus is characterized by a significant decrease in their rate of growth. The statistical results are of independent interest and applicable more generally.
---
PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1805.09937