摘要翻译：
许多动态微观模拟模型已经显示出它们能够利用非基于数据的家庭形成和解散规则来合理地预测详细的人口和家庭。尽管这些规则允许建模者简化家庭结构的变化，但它们通常无法复制家庭预测，或者如果追溯应用观察到的家庭数量。因此，对家庭规模和其他与家庭相关的属性的估计有偏差的模型在对家庭规模敏感的应用中失去了用处，如在旅行需求和住房需求建模中。然而，这些人口微观模拟模型及其相关的缺点被普遍用于评估各种规划政策，这可能导致误导性判断。在本文中，我们通过引入一个完全集成的不同生活事件模型系统，对人口微观模拟的文献做出了贡献，其中一个家庭对齐方法调整家庭规模分布以与任何给定的目标分布紧密对齐。此外，一些通常难以模拟的人口事件，如将移民家庭纳入人口，也可以包括在内。我们给出了一个家庭对齐方法的实例，并将其放在我们使用R中的通用微仿真工具包dymiumCore开发的动态微仿真模型中进行测试，以显示该方法潜在的改进和不足。该模型的实现已经在GitHub上公开。
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英文标题：
《A demographic microsimulation model with an integrated household
  alignment method》
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作者：
Amarin Siripanich and Taha Rashidi
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：General Economics        一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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一级分类：Statistics        统计学
二级分类：Applications        应用程序
分类描述：Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学，教育学，流行病学，工程学，环境科学，医学，物理科学，质量控制，社会科学
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英文摘要：
  Many dynamic microsimulation models have shown their ability to reasonably project detailed population and households using non-data based household formation and dissolution rules. Although, those rules allow modellers to simplify changes in the household construction, they typically fall short in replicating household projections or if applied retrospectively the observed household numbers. Consequently, such models with biased estimation for household size and other household related attributes lose their usefulness in applications that are sensitive to household size, such as in travel demand and housing demand modelling. Nonetheless, these demographic microsimulation models with their associated shortcomings have been commonly used to assess various planning policies which can result in misleading judgements. In this paper, we contribute to the literature of population microsimulation by introducing a fully integrated system of models for different life event where a household alignment method adjusts household size distribution to closely align with any given target distribution. Furthermore, some demographic events that are generally difficult to model, such as incorporating immigrant families into a population, can be included. We illustrated an example of the household alignment method and put it to test in a dynamic microsimulation model that we developed using dymiumCore, a general-purpose microsimulation toolkit in R, to show potential improvements and weaknesses of the method. The implementation of this model has been made publicly available on GitHub.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.09474