摘要翻译：
我们建立了一个中等规模的通胀动态半结构性时间序列模型，该模型符合央行经常表达的观点，即三个组成部分很重要：由长期预期锚定的趋势、菲利普斯曲线和能源价格的暂时波动。我们发现一个稳定的长期通货膨胀趋势和一条很好地确定的陡峭的菲利普斯曲线与数据是一致的，但它们暗示了自新千年以来潜在产出的下降和能源价格不仅通过菲利普斯曲线而且通过一个独立的预期通道影响整体通货膨胀。一个高频的能源价格周期可能与影响商品市场的全球因素有关，并往往压倒菲利普斯曲线，从而解释了过去十年的通胀难题。
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英文标题：
《A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation》
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作者：
Thomas Hasenzagl, Filippo Pellegrino, Lucrezia Reichlin, Giovanni
  Ricco
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：Econometrics        计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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一级分类：Statistics        统计学
二级分类：Applications        应用程序
分类描述：Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学，教育学，流行病学，工程学，环境科学，医学，物理科学，质量控制，社会科学
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英文摘要：
  We develop a medium-size semi-structural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view - often expressed by central banks - that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a Phillips curve and temporary fluctuations in energy prices. We find that a stable long-term inflation trend and a well identified steep Phillips curve are consistent with the data, but they imply potential output declining since the new millennium and energy prices affecting headline inflation not only via the Phillips curve but also via an independent expectational channel. A high-frequency energy price cycle can be related to global factors affecting the commodity market, and often overpowers the Phillips curve thereby explaining the inflation puzzles of the last ten years.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.14110