摘要翻译：
本文提出了一个一般性理论，旨在解释技术转移中经验观察到的时间尺度，并预测未来转移的时间尺度。这一框架进一步被用来导出一个理论，以探索不可逆的和路径依赖的价格或政策诱导的效率变化这一复杂现象背后的动力。众所周知，技术转变遵循逻辑函数很好地描述的模式，这些模式应该更严格地用Lotka-Volterra微分方程族进行数学建模，这些微分方程最初是为了描述竞争物种的种群增长而开发的。技术的动态演化在理论上也用类似于自然界观察到的演化动力学来描述。这里提出的理论结合了这两种方法，并提出了一种预测转换时间常数的方法，以便描述竞争技术的实际系统。利用这一框架可以很自然地解释价格或政策诱导的效率变化问题。给出了应用实例。
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英文标题：
《On the changeover timescales of technology transitions and induced
  efficiency changes: an overarching theory》
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作者：
Jean-Francois Mercure
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最新提交年份：
2012
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分类信息：

一级分类：Mathematics        数学
二级分类：Dynamical Systems        动力系统
分类描述：Dynamics of differential equations and flows, mechanics, classical few-body problems, iterations, complex dynamics, delayed differential equations
微分方程和流动的动力学，力学，经典的少体问题，迭代，复杂动力学，延迟微分方程
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一级分类：Computer Science        计算机科学
二级分类：Social and Information Networks        社会和信息网络
分类描述：Covers the design, analysis, and modeling of social and information networks, including their applications for on-line information access, communication, and interaction, and their roles as datasets in the exploration of questions in these and other domains, including connections to the social and biological sciences. Analysis and modeling of such networks includes topics in ACM Subject classes F.2, G.2, G.3, H.2, and I.2; applications in computing include topics in H.3, H.4, and H.5; and applications at the interface of computing and other disciplines include topics in J.1--J.7. Papers on computer communication systems and network protocols (e.g. TCP/IP) are generally a closer fit to the Networking and Internet Architecture (cs.NI) category.
涵盖社会和信息网络的设计、分析和建模，包括它们在联机信息访问、通信和交互方面的应用，以及它们作为数据集在这些领域和其他领域的问题探索中的作用，包括与社会和生物科学的联系。这类网络的分析和建模包括ACM学科类F.2、G.2、G.3、H.2和I.2的主题；计算应用包括H.3、H.4和H.5中的主题；计算和其他学科接口的应用程序包括J.1-J.7中的主题。关于计算机通信系统和网络协议（例如TCP/IP）的论文通常更适合网络和因特网体系结构（CS.NI）类别。
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
  This paper presents a general theory that aims at explaining timescales observed empirically in technology transitions and predicting those of future transitions. This framework is used further to derive a theory for exploring the dynamics that underlie the complex phenomenon of irreversible and path dependent price or policy induced efficiency changes. Technology transitions are known to follow patterns well described by logistic functions, which should more rigorously be modelled mathematically using the Lotka-Volterra family of differential equations, originally developed to described the population growth of competing species. The dynamic evolution of technology has also been described theoretically using evolutionary dynamics similar to that observed in nature. The theory presented here joins both approaches and presents a methodology for predicting changeover time constants in order to describe real systems of competing technologies. The problem of price or policy induced efficiency changes becomes naturally explained using this framework. Examples of application are given.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1209.0424