摘要翻译：
我们提出了开发预测大西雅图地区交通流量和拥挤的模型的研究。这项研究导致了一项名为JamBayes的服务的部署，超过2500名用户通过智能手机和系统的桌面版本积极使用该服务。我们回顾了建模的努力，并描述了探索模型预测精度的实验。最后，通过对意外情况的建模和预测，我们提出了建立能够识别当前和未来意外情况的模型的研究。
---
英文标题：
《Prediction, Expectation, and Surprise: Methods, Designs, and Study of a
  Deployed Traffic Forecasting Service》
---
作者：
Eric J. Horvitz, Johnson Apacible, Raman Sarin, Lin Liao
---
最新提交年份：
2012
---
分类信息：

一级分类：Computer Science        计算机科学
二级分类：Artificial Intelligence        人工智能
分类描述：Covers all areas of AI except Vision, Robotics, Machine Learning, Multiagent Systems, and Computation and Language (Natural Language Processing), which have separate subject areas. In particular, includes Expert Systems, Theorem Proving (although this may overlap with Logic in Computer Science), Knowledge Representation, Planning, and Uncertainty in AI. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.0, I.2.1, I.2.3, I.2.4, I.2.8, and I.2.11.
涵盖了人工智能的所有领域，除了视觉、机器人、机器学习、多智能体系统以及计算和语言（自然语言处理），这些领域有独立的学科领域。特别地，包括专家系统，定理证明（尽管这可能与计算机科学中的逻辑重叠），知识表示，规划，和人工智能中的不确定性。大致包括ACM学科类I.2.0、I.2.1、I.2.3、I.2.4、I.2.8和I.2.11中的材料。
--
一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
--

---
英文摘要：
  We present research on developing models that forecast traffic flow and congestion in the Greater Seattle area. The research has led to the deployment of a service named JamBayes, that is being actively used by over 2,500 users via smartphones and desktop versions of the system. We review the modeling effort and describe experiments probing the predictive accuracy of the models. Finally, we present research on building models that can identify current and future surprises, via efforts on modeling and forecasting unexpected situations.
---
PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1207.1352